Economic Indicators - The weekly ECI supply index is at 50.03%, down 0.01 percentage points from last week, while the demand index remains stable at 49.91%[6] - The monthly ECI supply index is at 50.04%, down 0.03 percentage points from August, and the demand index is at 49.91%, up 0.02 percentage points from August[7] - The ECI investment index is at 49.93%, unchanged from last week, while the consumption index is at 49.68%, down 0.04 percentage points[6] Real Estate and Consumption - The transaction area of commercial housing in 30 major cities increased by 14.5% year-on-year, improving from 6.8% in the first half of the month[7] - The retail sales of passenger cars in September showed a year-on-year decline of 4.0%, indicating a gradual emergence of base effect in consumer spending[24] Export and Industrial Production - The cumulative cargo throughput at monitored ports recorded a year-on-year growth of approximately 7.8%, improving from 4.6% in August, suggesting strong export resilience[7] - The industrial production index shows a slight recovery, with the national blast furnace operating rate at 84.00%, up 0.15 percentage points from last week[16] Monetary Policy and Liquidity - The ELI index is at -0.73%, down 0.04 percentage points from last week, indicating a slight decrease in liquidity[12] - The central bank is expected to restart the 14-day reverse repurchase operations to stabilize liquidity around the quarter-end, with a net monetary injection of 562.3 billion yuan this week[51] Risks and Policy Measures - Risks include uncertainties in U.S. tariff policies and the potential for policy measures to fall short of market expectations[58] - Recent policies aimed at expanding service consumption were announced, which may help alleviate pressures on commodity consumption and prices[57]
宏观量化经济指数周报20250921：基数走高下商品消费和地产销售同比增速或继续承压-20250921
Soochow Securities·2025-09-21 14:02