利率策略周报（2025-09-21）：继续防守策略-20250921

Group 1 - The core view of the report emphasizes a defensive strategy in the bond market, with a focus on mid-to-short duration credit bonds being relatively advantageous, while long-duration bonds are approached with a trading strategy [3][4]. - Recent adjustments in the bond market were influenced by the easing of real estate policies, particularly a new policy introduced in Shanghai, which has led to a slight recovery in market sentiment and a decrease in long-term bond yields [1][2]. - The report indicates that the rise in risk appetite, particularly following the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts, is a primary factor contributing to the upward pressure on long-term bond yields in China [2][3]. Group 2 - The bond market tracking section notes that mid-to-short duration bonds have shown relatively strong performance, while long-end yields have experienced slight adjustments [7]. - Economic activity indicators, such as the high-frequency economic activity index, are currently in a seasonal decline, with the index at 1.01% as of September 16 [17][18]. - The report highlights that the transaction volume in the real estate market remains at historical lows, with 30 major cities recording a total sales area of 21.00 million square meters [34]. Group 3 - The monetary and liquidity section reports fluctuations in the DR001 weighted average interest rate, which ranged from 1.4140% to 1.5127% during the week of September 15-19 [58]. - The report also notes that the 1-year interbank certificate of deposit rates fluctuated between 1.625% and 1.650%, indicating a narrowing of the 1Y-3M spread by 0.74 basis points [58][59].