利率专题：股债之间

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Since July, the "stock - bond seesaw" and "trading bonds based on stocks" have become key factors affecting the market, and the short - term trading logic of the bond market has shifted from fundamental and capital - based pricing to the "asset reallocation" logic under changing risk preferences [11][12]. - The evolution of the "stock - bond seesaw" can be divided into four stages: expected - driven, asset - end rebalancing, liability - end driven, and full risk - preference enhancement. The impact on the bond market deepens gradually in these stages [13][14][15]. - Currently, the market is in the second stage (asset - end rebalancing), and there are no obvious signs of moving to the third stage. The linkage between stocks and bonds is likely to remain in the second stage this year. For the bond market, it is necessary to pay attention to the stock market performance, central bank's monetary policy response, the final implementation of the new regulations on public fund sales, and the entry timing of allocation funds [6][60]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Stock - Bond Linkage: Four - Stage Deduction of the "Seesaw" - In specific market stages, the "asset reallocation" logic driven by institutional behavior and capital flow may become the core factor leading the bond market trend. Understanding factors such as the liability characteristics, investment strategies, and regulatory constraints of different institutions is crucial for accurately grasping the micro - structure of the bond market and predicting market fluctuations [12]. 3.2. First Stage: Expected - Driven, Initial Appearance of the "Stock - Bond Seesaw" - This stage stems from marginal changes in the macro - economic environment, policy orientation, or market risk preferences, which first affect investors' expectations, leading to an initial pattern of rising stocks and falling bonds. Although there is no obvious capital migration, expectations are reflected in asset prices, and the market tilts towards equity assets. The direct impact on the bond market is relatively small [13][21]. - In July 2025, the stock market recovered significantly, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising 3.3% to 3573 points, the CSI 300 Index rising 3.4% to 4076 points, and the ChiNext Index soaring 8.4%. The bond market sentiment was under pressure, and the yields of 1Y, 5Y, 10Y, and 30Y treasury bonds increased by 4BP, 6BP, 6BP, and 9BP respectively [21][22]. - Transaction - oriented institutions (such as funds) took defensive actions, reducing bond duration and long - positions in interest - rate bonds. Allocation - oriented institutions (such as insurance and rural commercial banks) were relatively stable, with insurance continuing to increase bond holdings and rural commercial banks turning from net sellers to net buyers [24]. 3.3. Second Stage: Asset - End Rebalancing, Intra - institutional Capital Migration - As the upward trend of the stock market is confirmed and the bond market is expected to be under pressure, stock and bond assets switch characteristics. Investors may reduce bond allocation, and capital shifts from fixed - income assets to equity assets, increasing bond market volatility [14][30]. - Banks increased the issuance of equity - containing products. In July 2025, the new issuance scale of "fixed - income +" products was 40.92 billion yuan, accounting for 65% of the total issuance scale, and the proportion rose to 71% in August [31]. - Funds increased the layout of the "fixed - income +" strategy. Since 2025, the performance of "fixed - income +" funds has been better than that of pure - bond funds. The share of equity funds has increased, while that of bond funds has decreased [34][35]. - Insurance funds increased the proportion of equity allocation. Policy support and the need to meet liability costs drove insurance funds to invest more in equity assets. As of Q2 2025, the balance of insurance funds in use exceeded 36 trillion yuan, with about 4.74 trillion yuan invested in stocks and securities investment funds [40][41]. 3.4. Third Stage: Liability - End Driven, Cross - institutional Capital Migration - When the "stock - bond seesaw" effect intensifies, capital migrates across institutions and products. Investor redemptions force institutions to sell bond assets passively, potentially forming a negative feedback loop and exerting significant selling pressure on the bond market [5][45]. - In some periods from August to September 2025, there were signs of the third stage, but the overall impact was controllable. On August 18, the A - share market rose, and bond - type funds were mainly redeemed by wealth management, trust, futures, and securities firms. On September 9, due to the public fund fee reform and market news, investors redeemed bond funds, and bond yields rose rapidly [45][46]. - The redemption of bond funds by wealth management and bank self - operation may lead to a negative feedback loop in the bond market. Wealth management first redeems bond funds, then bond funds sell bonds, which further drives down bond prices and triggers more redemptions [47][48]. 3.5. Fourth Stage: Full Risk - Preference Enhancement, "Reversal after Reaching the Extreme" - When the "stock - bond seesaw" effect reaches its extreme, there is a large - scale migration of capital from low - risk to high - risk assets. This is a systematic asset allocation rebalancing led by individual investors, causing bond yields to rise significantly and deviate from fundamental pricing [6][53]. - Residents' deposits "move" to non - bank financial institutions, and capital continuously flows from fixed - income products to the equity market, which may lead to long - term and deep adjustments in the bond market [54][56]. - The market in 2015 is an example of the fourth - stage deduction. During the bull market in May - June 2015, a large amount of capital flowed into the stock market, and the bond market experienced significant adjustments and capital outflows. After the stock market crash, capital flowed back to the bond market [57].