Tianfeng Securities·2025-09-21 14:12Report Industry Investment Rating The provided content does not mention the industry investment rating. Report's Core View This report is an overseas economic tracking weekly report that analyzes the trends of the US and global financial markets, central bank policies, Trump's policies, and economic fundamentals from September 15 - 19, 2025, and provides a preview of important events in the coming week [1]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Overseas Market One - Week Review - Equity: US stocks reached new highs, with the S&P 500, Dow, and Nasdaq rising 1.22%, 1.05%, and 2.21% respectively. European and Asian stock markets showed mixed trends [1][12]. - Foreign Exchange: The US dollar rose slightly, with the dollar index up 0.03%. The euro and yen had different performances against the dollar, and the RMB rose slightly against the dollar [12]. - Interest Rates: US Treasury yields and term spreads increased. The 2Y and 10Y US Treasuries rose 1bp and 8bp respectively [13]. - Commodities: Gold and crude oil rose after fluctuations. COMEX gold and silver rose 1.09% and 1.40% respectively, and WTI crude oil rose 0.19% [13]. 2. Overseas Policy and Important News 2.1 Overseas Central Bank Dynamics - The Fed cut interest rates by 25bp as expected. The statement emphasized employment risks, and the dot - plot showed more expected rate cuts in 2025 and subsequent years [2]. - Fed Chairman Powell's stance was moderately dovish but cautious. Other Fed officials were neutrally dovish [2][30]. - The market's expectation of a 75bp rate cut in 2025 increased, but the expectation of rate cuts in 2026 was postponed [3]. 2.2 Trump Policy Tracking - Sino - US Relations: High - level talks reached a basic framework consensus on issues such as TikTok and trade cooperation. The TikTok ban was extended to December 16, and a Sino - US presidential call was held [4]. - Fiscal: There is a risk of a partial government shutdown. The House passed a temporary appropriation bill, but the Senate rejected one [4]. - Other Aspects: The US Supreme Court will hear oral arguments on Trump's tariff case, the UK and the US signed a technology agreement, and Trump reformed the H - 1B visa program [6]. 3. Overseas Economic Fundamental High - Frequency Tracking - Overall Prosperity: The Nowcast and GDPNow models raised the Q3 US GDP growth forecasts to 2.10% and 3.34% respectively [7]. - Employment: Unemployment insurance claims decreased unexpectedly. Initial and continued claims both declined [7]. - Demand: Retail sales and airport security checks were stable, but railway transportation decreased significantly. The real estate market recovered [7]. - Production: US crude steel production and refinery operations remained stable, above last year's levels [7]. - Shipping: International freight rates were mixed. Some Chinese export container rates decreased, while some US - bound routes increased [7]. - Prices: US retail gasoline prices rose, and the 1 - year inflation swap decreased slightly [7]. - Financial Conditions: The OFR US financial stress index declined [7]. 4. Next Week's Overseas Important Event Reminders Next week (September 22 - 26, 2025), focus on the US Q2 real GDP final value, the US August core PCE inflation rate, the S&P PMI of the US and the eurozone, and密集 Fed officials' speeches [7][73].