地方债周度跟踪：发行回落，新增地方债累计发行进度约80%-20250921

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the industry investment rating in the given documents. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The issuance and net financing of local government bonds decreased significantly on a week - on - week basis this period, and it is expected to increase on a week - on - week basis in the next period. The total issuance/net financing of local government bonds in this period (2025.9.15 - 2025.9.21) was 188.519 billion yuan/30.855 billion yuan (the previous period was 301.672 billion yuan/192.779 billion yuan), and it is expected to be 196.051 billion yuan/122.461 billion yuan in the next period (2025.9.22 - 2025.9.28) [3]. - The cumulative issuance progress of new local government bonds is higher than that of the same period in 2024 but lower than that of the same period in 2023. As of September 19, 2025, the cumulative issuance of new general bonds/new special bonds accounted for 82.0% and 79.2% of the annual quota respectively, and it will be 82.7% and 82.6% considering the expected issuance in the next period [3]. - The planned issuance scale of local government bonds from September to October 2025 is 1.1384 trillion yuan, of which new special bonds account for 668.8 billion yuan [3]. - The spreads between 10 - year and 30 - year local government bonds and treasury bonds narrowed this period, and the weekly turnover rate increased on a week - on - week basis. As of September 19, 2025, the spreads between 10 - year and 30 - year local government bonds and treasury bonds were 16.11BP and 17.04BP respectively, narrowing by 3.19BP and 0.56BP compared to September 12, 2025 [3]. - Currently, the cost - effectiveness of exploring the spreads between local government bonds and treasury bonds is not high [3]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 This period, the issuance volume of local government bonds decreased, and the weighted issuance term shortened - The total issuance/net financing of local government bonds in this period (2025.9.15 - 2025.9.21) was 188.519 billion yuan/30.855 billion yuan, compared with 301.672 billion yuan/192.779 billion yuan in the previous period. The weighted issuance term of local government bonds in this period was 15.89 years, shorter than 17.84 years in the previous period [3]. - As of September 19, 2025, the cumulative issuance of new general bonds/new special bonds accounted for 82.0% and 79.2% of the annual quota respectively, and it will be 82.7% and 82.6% considering the expected issuance in the next period. In 2024, the cumulative issuance progress was 77.1%/71.7% and 82.1%/85.0% respectively, and in 2023, it was 85.6%/81.6% and 89.6%/84.7% respectively [3]. - The planned issuance scale of local government bonds from September to October 2025 is 1.1384 trillion yuan (753.8 billion yuan in September and 384.6 billion yuan in October), of which new special bonds account for 668.8 billion yuan (438.5 billion yuan in September and 230.3 billion yuan in October) [3]. - As of September 19, 2025, the cumulative issuance of special new special bonds was 1.1506 trillion yuan (52.1 billion yuan was issued this period); the cumulative issuance of special refinancing bonds for replacing hidden debts was 1.9747 trillion yuan (21.4 billion yuan was issued this period), with an issuance progress of 98.7%, and 31 regions including Zhejiang have completed the issuance (Guizhou was added this period) [3]. 3.2 This period, the spreads between 10Y and 30Y local government bonds and treasury bonds narrowed, and the weekly turnover rate increased on a week - on - week basis - As of September 19, 2025, the spreads between 10 - year and 30 - year local government bonds and treasury bonds were 16.11BP and 17.04BP respectively, narrowing by 3.19BP and 0.56BP compared to September 12, 2025, and were at the 30.40% and 66.70% historical quantiles since 2023 respectively [3]. - The weekly turnover rate of local government bonds in this period was 0.87%, increasing from 0.78% in the previous period on a week - on - week basis. The yields and liquidity of 7 - 10Y local government bonds in Inner Mongolia, Liaoning, Shandong and other regions were better than the national average [3]. - Taking the 10 - year local government bond as the observation anchor, since 2018, the upper limit of the spread adjustment may be about 20 - 25BP higher than the lower limit of the issuance spread, and the lower limit may be around the lower limit of the issuance spread. Currently, the upper limit of the spread between local government bonds and treasury bonds may be around 30 - 35BP, and the lower limit may be around 5 - 10BP [3].