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海外消费周报:海外教育:营利性分类管理条件成熟,市场化改革推动高校扩张,承接增量高教需求-20250921
Shenwan Hongyuan Securities·2025-09-21 14:43

Group 1: Industry Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the overseas education sector, indicating a favorable investment rating due to the maturation of profit-oriented classification management and market reforms driving the expansion of higher education institutions [1][2]. Group 2: Core Insights - The conditions for profit-oriented classification management in private education are gradually maturing, with quality improvement in private schools being a crucial prerequisite for this transition. The report anticipates an acceleration in the implementation of profit-oriented policies for private schools, which will enhance the supply of higher education while ensuring quality [1][9]. - The establishment of profit distribution rights for private schools has led to increased certainty in asset returns. The average profit margin for the six listed private higher education companies is approximately 30.9%, with an average ROE of 12%. This indicates a robust commercial model that seeks to expand scale and revenue [2][10]. - The report highlights a significant mismatch between supply and demand in the higher education sector, with the number of college admissions only increasing from 10.36 million in 2021 to 10.69 million in 2024, while the number of high school graduates entering the college entrance examination has risen from 10.78 million in 2021 to 13.42 million in 2024. This has resulted in a declining college admission rate from 96.1% in 2021 to 79.6% in 2024 [2][10]. - The report suggests that the current quality standards achieved by listed private higher education companies will lay a solid foundation for the reintroduction of profit-oriented choices, which is expected to enhance the valuation of the higher education sector [2][11]. Group 3: Company Focus - The report recommends focusing on several key companies in the overseas education sector, including Yuhua Education, Zhongjiao Holdings, China Kepei, Neusoft Ruixin, Zhonghui Group, New Higher Education, Xijiao International Holdings, and Huaxia Holdings, as they are well-positioned to benefit from the anticipated policy changes [3][11][14].