反内卷下，钢铁表外产能的退出路径

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is Neutral, maintained [9] Core Insights - The report highlights the exit paths for off-balance steel production capacity under the "anti-involution" policy, focusing on the need for stricter regulation and the removal of illegal production capacities [5][7] - Seasonal recovery in construction demand and liquidity support have contributed to a rebound in steel prices, although the demand during the "Golden September" period is not particularly strong [4][27] - The report emphasizes the importance of regulatory measures to ensure the exit of illegal and excess steel production capacities, which is crucial for improving the supply-demand balance in the steel industry [7][28] Summary by Sections Section: Current Market Conditions - Construction demand has shown seasonal recovery, with apparent consumption of five major steel products increasing by 0.34% year-on-year and 0.55% month-on-month [4] - Daily average pig iron production has risen to 2.4102 million tons, reflecting a slight increase of 0.47 tons per day [4] - Total steel inventory has increased by 0.32% month-on-month and 7.16% year-on-year [4] Section: Regulatory Environment - Recent inspections by the Central Environmental Protection Supervision Team have focused on illegal steel production capacities in several provinces, highlighting issues such as unauthorized construction and the persistence of "rebar steel" production [5][6] - The report identifies three main forms of illegal steel production: capacity replacement schemes, production under the guise of casting and forging, and the construction of illegal rebar steel [6] Section: Future Outlook - The report anticipates a clear direction for steel production regulation, emphasizing the need to eliminate illegal capacities and enforce strict compliance with production standards [7] - It suggests that the ongoing "anti-involution" policies will enhance the supply-side contraction expectations, potentially leading to significant valuation recovery for steel companies with low price-to-book ratios [27][28]