Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the transportation industry [8] Core Insights - The report highlights that the express delivery price increase exceeded expectations, and oil shipping rates continue to rise [5][6] - The passenger transport chain shows continuous improvement in load factors, with ticket prices turning positive year-on-year [5][17] - The logistics sector's unit price data surpassed expectations, indicating a favorable outlook for profitability amid a "de-involution" trend [7] Summary by Sections Passenger Transport - Domestic passenger volume increased by 11% year-on-year, while international passenger volume rose by 15% [5][17] - The domestic load factor improved by 5.0 percentage points year-on-year, and the international load factor increased by 4.6 percentage points [24] - Domestic ticket prices saw a slight decline of 1.5% year-on-year due to fuel surcharges, but the bare ticket price increased by 2.4% year-on-year, indicating a gradual recovery in revenue [24] Maritime Transport - Oil shipping rates continued to rise, with the average VLCC-TCE increasing by 15.3% to $90,000 per day [6][45] - The SCFI index for foreign trade container shipping fell by 14.3% to 1,198 points, indicating pressure on supply and demand [6][45] - The BDI index for bulk shipping rose by 3.6% to 2,203 points, driven by active demand from miners [6][45] Logistics - The volume of postal express deliveries reached 3.83 billion pieces, a year-on-year increase of 8.5% [7][51] - The average price for short-haul transport remained stable at 63 yuan per ton, with a daily average of 1,330 vehicles operating [7][51] - The unit price for major express companies showed significant increases, with YTO, Shentong, and Yunda reporting respective unit revenues of 2.15, 2.06, and 1.92 yuan, reflecting a positive trend in profitability [7][51]
交运周专题2025W38：快递单价涨幅超预期，油运运价延续上行
Changjiang Securities·2025-09-21 23:30