中美元首通电话

1. Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views - The international gold price rose more than 1% on Friday to a new high, driven by the dovish speech of Fed Governor Milan, which strengthened the market's expectation of consecutive interest rate cuts in future Fed meetings. The gold ETF holdings increased significantly, but the domestic gold market was affected by factors such as stock market performance and RMB exchange rate, and the report suggested short - term high - level operation of gold prices and pre - festival position reduction [1][15]. - The simultaneous official statements by the UK, Canada, and Australia to recognize the State of Palestine increased the political pressure on Israel, and the geopolitical risk was uncertain. The US dollar was expected to maintain short - term volatility [19]. - After the interest rate cut, small - cap stocks and real estate sectors had profit - taking, but technology companies' capital expenditure plans were expected to drive the US stock index to fluctuate strongly. The market risk appetite remained high, and a long - biased approach was recommended [22]. - The recent stock market was volatile, with a divergence between technology stocks and traditional heavy - weight stocks. It was recommended to moderately take profits in the short term to cope with high volatility [26]. - Negative factors led to a sharp decline in Treasury bond futures. The bond market was expected to fluctuate at the end of the month and return to fundamental trading in the middle and late October. It was recommended to be cautious in the short term and consider mid - line long - position strategies later [30]. - The price of thermal coal was expected to remain strong in the short term due to supply - side regulation, but downstream resistance might increase as the price rose [33]. - The iron ore price was in high - level oscillation, with short - term support. After the festival, the market was cautious, and the impact of year - end long - term agreements was uncertain [34]. - The supply of Brazilian sugar was strong in the second half of August, but the peak of the crushing season was approaching. The domestic sugar market was under short - term pressure, but the downside space of Zhengzhou sugar was limited, and there might be a weak rebound in the fourth quarter [39]. - The overall export signing progress of US cotton was behind the same period in recent years. The external cotton faced seasonal supply pressure, and the Zhengzhou cotton was expected to maintain an oscillatory pattern, with a bearish view in the fourth quarter [44]. - The oil and fat market lacked a driving force and maintained an oscillatory trend. Palm oil was recommended for range - bound operations, and for international and domestic soybean oil, different strategies such as long - short spreads were suggested [47]. - The soybean meal was likely to remain range - bound, and the development of Sino - US relations should be continuously monitored [50]. - The steel price was expected to have a small - scale rebound in the short term before the National Day, but the upward space was limited [53]. - The fundamentals of red dates were bearish, but the impact of capital and weather speculation should be vigilant, and it was recommended to wait and see [57]. - The medium - term view on corn was bearish, and it was recommended to hold short positions [58]. - The long - term fundamentals of corn starch were bearish [60]. - The price of alumina was under downward pressure due to oversupply, and it was recommended to short at high levels [61]. - The copper price was expected to oscillate at a high level in the short term, and it was recommended to lay out mid - line long positions at low levels [65]. - The price of lithium carbonate was expected to fall in the fourth quarter, and a short - biased approach was recommended [66]. - The polysilicon market was expected to oscillate widely in the short term, and option - selling and spread - trading strategies were suggested [71]. - The industrial silicon price was recommended to be bought at low levels, but chasing high prices should be cautious [74]. - For nickel, it was recommended to look for long - position opportunities after sentiment release and consider positive spreads [77]. - The lead price was expected to oscillate upward, and it was recommended to lay out mid - line long positions and consider positive spreads [79]. - For zinc, it was recommended to wait and see in the short term and consider positive spreads [80]. - The EU carbon price was expected to oscillate strongly [82]. - The oil price was expected to maintain an interval oscillatory trend in the short term [84]. - The price of caustic soda was expected to have limited downward space [88]. - The pulp market was expected to oscillate weakly [90]. - The PVC market was fundamentally weak, but further decline was difficult. Policy support should be monitored [91]. - The bottle chip market's supply - demand pattern was not substantially improved, and the sustainability of production cuts and new capacity launch should be monitored [95]. - The benzene and styrene markets were expected to oscillate weakly, and the resolution of inventory contradictions after the peak season and oil price fluctuations should be monitored [97]. - The PX price was expected to oscillate weakly in the short term [101]. - The PTA price was expected to oscillate weakly and adjust in the short term [103]. - For soda ash, a short - at - high approach was recommended, and supply - side disturbances should be monitored [106]. - For float glass, an arbitrage strategy of long glass 2601 and short soda ash 2601 was recommended [108]. - For container shipping rates, different strategies were recommended for different contracts, such as taking profits at low levels for the 10 - contract and looking for low - long opportunities for the 12 - contract [110]. 3. Summaries by Directory 3.1 Financial News and Comments 3.1.1 Macro Strategy (Gold) - The call between Chinese and US leaders, the increase in gold ETF holdings, and Milan's dovish speech drove the international gold price up. The domestic gold market was affected by multiple factors, and short - term high - level operation with pre - festival position reduction was recommended [13][14][15]. 3.1.2 Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures - US Dollar Index) - Venezuela clarified drug - related issues, Trump communicated with Musk, and the UK, Canada, and Australia recognized Palestine. The US dollar was expected to maintain short - term volatility [16][17][19]. 3.1.3 Macro Strategy (US Stock Index Futures) - Milan emphasized independent decision - making on interest rate cuts. Oracle negotiated a large - scale AI cloud - computing agreement. The US stock index was expected to fluctuate strongly, and a long - biased approach was recommended [21][22]. 3.1.4 Macro Strategy (Stock Index Futures) - The call between Chinese and US leaders and the collective appearance of financial regulators. The stock market was volatile, and it was recommended to moderately take profits [24][26]. 3.1.5 Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures) - The call between Chinese and US leaders, Shanghai's housing property tax policy adjustment, and the central bank's reverse - repurchase operation. Treasury bond futures fell, and the bond market was expected to oscillate at the end of the month. A cautious short - term approach and mid - line long - position consideration later were recommended [28][29][30]. 3.2 Commodity News and Comments 3.2.1 Black Metal (Thermal Coal) - The price of thermal coal in the northern port market was strong on September 19. Supply - side regulation might drive the price to remain strong in the short term, but downstream resistance could increase [32][33]. 3.2.2 Black Metal (Iron Ore) - National fixed - asset investment data showed a slowdown in some sectors. The iron ore price was in high - level oscillation, and the market was cautious after the festival [34]. 3.2.3 Agricultural Product (Sugar) - China's sugar import data and Brazil's sugar production data in the second half of August. The domestic sugar market was under short - term pressure, but the downside space was limited [35][39]. 3.2.4 Agricultural Product (Cotton) - EU's clothing import data, India's cotton sales, and US cotton export data. The external cotton faced supply pressure, and the Zhengzhou cotton was expected to oscillate [41][42][44]. 3.2.5 Agricultural Product (Soybean Oil/Rapeseed Oil/Palm Oil) - Malaysia's palm oil reference price adjustment. The oil and fat market lacked a driving force, and different strategies were recommended for different oils [46][47]. 3.2.6 Agricultural Product (Soybean Meal) - The high - level operation of oil - mill开机率. The soybean meal was likely to remain range - bound, and Sino - US relations should be monitored [49][50]. 3.2.7 Black Metal (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil) - Indonesian steel enterprises' decarbonization plan and steel - mill production data. The steel price was expected to have a short - term small - scale rebound, but the upward space was limited [51][53]. 3.2.8 Agricultural Product (Red Dates) - The price change of red dates in the market. The fundamentals of red dates were bearish, and it was recommended to wait and see [56][57]. 3.2.9 Agricultural Product (Corn) - Corn price regional differentiation. The medium - term view on corn was bearish, and it was recommended to hold short positions [58]. 3.2.10 Agricultural Product (Corn Starch) - The increase in starch开机率 and the decrease in inventory. The long - term fundamentals of corn starch were bearish [59][60]. 3.2.11 Non - ferrous Metal (Alumina) - Alumina inventory data. The alumina price was under downward pressure, and it was recommended to short at high levels [61][62]. 3.2.12 Non - ferrous Metal (Copper) - China's subsidy cut for copper and nickel imports and a mining project financing agreement. The copper price was expected to oscillate at a high level in the short term, and mid - line long positions were recommended [63][65]. 3.2.13 Non - ferrous Metal (Lithium Carbonate) - Argentina's lithium carbonate export data. The lithium carbonate price was expected to fall in the fourth quarter, and a short - biased approach was recommended [66]. 3.2.14 Non - ferrous Metal (Polysilicon) - The "Three - North" project plan. The polysilicon market was expected to oscillate widely in the short term, and option and spread strategies were suggested [67][71]. 3.2.15 Non - ferrous Metal (Industrial Silicon) - Industrial silicon production data. The industrial silicon price was recommended to be bought at low levels, but chasing high prices should be cautious [72][74]. 3.2.16 Non - ferrous Metal (Nickel) - The confirmation of nickel oxide's high - temperature superconductivity. The nickel price was recommended to look for long - position opportunities after sentiment release and consider positive spreads [75][77]. 3.2.17 Non - ferrous Metal (Lead) - LME lead data and new battery certification. The lead price was expected to oscillate upward, and mid - line long positions and positive spreads were recommended [78][79]. 3.2.18 Non - ferrous Metal (Zinc) - LME zinc data. For zinc, it was recommended to wait and see in the short term and consider positive spreads [80]. 3.2.19 Energy Chemical (Carbon Emission) - EUA contract data. The EU carbon price was expected to oscillate strongly [81][82]. 3.2.20 Energy Chemical (Crude Oil) - The increase in US oil rigs. The oil price was expected to maintain an interval oscillatory trend in the short term [83][84]. 3.2.21 Energy Chemical (Caustic Soda) - The price change of caustic soda. The price of caustic soda was expected to have limited downward space [85][88]. 3.2.22 Energy Chemical (Pulp) - The price change of pulp. The pulp market was expected to oscillate weakly [89][90]. 3.2.23 Energy Chemical (PVC) - The price change of PVC. The PVC market was fundamentally weak, but further decline was difficult. Policy support should be monitored [91]. 3.2.24 Energy Chemical (Bottle Chips) - The price and order data of bottle chips. The bottle chip market's supply - demand pattern was not substantially improved, and the sustainability of production cuts and new capacity launch should be monitored [92][95]. 3.2.25 Energy Chemical (Benzene and Styrene) - The consumption data of benzene and styrene downstream. The benzene and styrene markets were expected to oscillate weakly, and the resolution of inventory contradictions after the peak season and oil price fluctuations should be monitored [96][97]. 3.2.26 Energy Chemical (PX) - PX supply - demand data. The PX price was expected to oscillate weakly in the short term [99][101]. 3.2.27 Energy Chemical (PTA) - PTA spot and futures data. The PTA price was expected to oscillate weakly and adjust in the short term [102][103]. 3.2.28 Energy Chemical (Soda Ash) - Soda ash price data. For soda ash, a short - at - high approach was recommended, and supply - side disturbances should be monitored [104][106]. 3.2.29 Energy Chemical (Float Glass) - Float glass price data. For float glass, an arbitrage strategy of long glass 2601 and short soda ash 2601 was recommended [107][108]. 3.2.30 Shipping Index (Container Freight Rate) - Container ship order data. Different strategies were recommended for different contracts, such as taking profits at low levels for the 10 - contract and looking for low - long opportunities for the 12 - contract [109][110].