原油：测试支撑，各类多配轻仓持有，北海供应恢复预期压制价格，但地缘政治风险提供底部支撑

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints - The report suggests testing support levels for crude oil and holding various long - positions in light positions [1] - Citi analysts believe that Brent crude oil prices will gradually decline to around $60 per barrel from the end of this year to 2026 due to OPEC+ phasing out "second - round production cuts" and expected growth in global crude oil inventories. The daily average increase in global crude oil inventories is predicted to be 1.1 million barrels in 2025 and 2.1 million barrels in 2026 [7] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Global Benchmark Crude - Brent (Dated): Price data not provided. North Sea supply recovery expectations suppress prices, while geopolitical risks provide bottom - line support [2] - WTI (Cushing): Price is $64.08, with a daily change of $0.3. The end of the US refinery autumn maintenance season and rising demand drive up inland oil prices [2] - Dubai: Price is $81.21, with a daily change of $0.34. Stable Asian refinery procurement demand and lower official Middle - East selling prices stimulate buying interest [2] - Oman: Price is $81.55, with a daily change of $0.45. Driven by the strengthening of the Dubai benchmark, the spot discount of Omani crude oil narrows [2] Regional Crude Oil Spreads - Brent/WTI (Front): Spread is $4.18, with a daily change of - $0.07. Increased US exports narrow the trans - Atlantic spread and the arbitrage window closes [2] - Brent EFP (Nov): Spread is - $0.01, with a daily change of - $0.05. The deepening contango structure in the futures market reflects the expectation of abundant short - term supply [2] - Dubai/Oman Swap (Oct): Spread is $0.1, with a daily change of $0.03. Tight Omani crude oil supply leads to an expanded premium relative to Dubai [2] Refining Profits - Gasoline裂解 (Singapore vs Dubai): Price is $8.93. Seasonal decline in Asian gasoline demand puts pressure on refinery profit margins [4] - Diesel裂解 (Singapore vs Dubai): Price is $18.91. Robust industrial demand and low inventories support strong diesel cracking [4] - Jet fuel裂解 (Singapore vs Dubai): Price is $17.86. The continuous recovery of the aviation industry, but the commissioning of new refining capacity increases supply pressure [4] Key Middle - East Crude - Umm Lulu: Price is $69.9, with a daily change of - $0.91, and a spread of $3.16 to Dubai. Weak demand for heavy crude oil and refineries' preference for light, low - sulfur crude oil lead to an expanded discount [4] - Das Blend: Price is $69.35, with a daily change of - $0.91, and a spread of $2.61 to Dubai. Reduced purchases by Asian buyers increase the pressure of oversupply in the spot market [4] - Murban: Price is $69.85, with a daily change of - $0.91, and a spread of $3.11 to Dubai. The light - crude characteristics are favored by Asian refineries, but the overall market downturn drags down the price [4] Key Market News - The Premier of the State Council, Li Qiang, met with a delegation of US House of Representatives members [5] - Israeli MPs' visit to Taiwan was strongly condemned by the Chinese embassy [5] - Trump pressured European countries to stop buying Russian oil [5] - Iran will suspend cooperation with the International Atomic Energy Agency due to the actions of the UK, France, and Germany in pushing for the resumption of sanctions against Iran [5] - The EU is considering trade measures against the Russian "Friendship" oil pipeline [6] - Citi analysts predict that Brent crude prices will decline from the end of this year to 2026 due to OPEC+ actions and expected inventory growth [7] Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of crude oil is 1, indicating a neutral trend on a scale from - 2 (most bearish) to 2 (most bullish) [8]