钢材周报：关注预期变化，钢价震荡为主-20250922

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The macro - level shows that real estate investment continues to decline, infrastructure investment slows down, and terminal demand is weak. After the Fed's interest rate cut, the market expects policy intensification. - On the fundamental side, last week's industrial data was favorable. The output of the five major steel products decreased slightly, the apparent demand rebounded, and the inventory increased but the growth rate narrowed significantly. The inventory of rebar turned to decline. The apparent demand for rebar increased, but the terminal was weak, with limited rebound space. The demand for hot - rolled coils decreased month - on - month but still showed resilience. - It is expected that the futures price will show a volatile trend. [1][4][5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Transaction Data | Contract | Closing Price | Change | Change Rate (%) | Total Trading Volume (Lots) | Total Open Interest (Lots) | Price Unit | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | SHFE Rebar | 3172 | 36 | 1.15 | 8980373 | 3148179 | Yuan/ton | | SHFE Hot - rolled Coil | 3374 | 4 | 0.12 | 2777138 | 1412324 | Yuan/ton | | DCE Iron Ore | 807.5 | 11.5 | 1.44 | 1698860 | 533529 | Yuan/ton | | DCE Coking Coal | 1232.0 | 44.5 | 3.75 | 8119133 | 943381 | Yuan/ton | | DCE Coke | 1738.5 | 50.0 | 2.96 | 160217 | 52987 | Yuan/ton | [2] 3.2 Market Review - Last week, steel futures fluctuated and rebounded. In the spot market, the price of Tangshan steel billets was 3010 (+20) yuan/ton, the Shanghai rebar was quoted at 3220 (-20) yuan/ton, and the Shanghai hot - rolled coil was 3400 (+20) yuan/ton. - From January to August, the national real estate development investment was 60309 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 12.9%. The housing construction area of real estate development enterprises was 643109 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 9.3%. The new housing construction area was 39801 million square meters, a decrease of 19.5%. The national fixed - asset investment (excluding rural households) was 326111 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 0.5%. The investment in the production and supply of electricity, heat, gas, and water increased by 18.8%. The investment in water transportation increased by 15.9%, the investment in water conservancy management increased by 7.4%, and the investment in railway transportation increased by 4.5%. - In terms of the industry, last week, the rebar output was 2060000 tons, a decrease of 50000 tons month - on - month, the apparent demand was 2100000 tons, an increase of 120000 tons, the factory inventory was 1650000 tons, a decrease of 20000 tons, the social inventory was 4850000 tons, a decrease of 20000 tons, and the total inventory was 6500000 tons, a decrease of 40000 tons. The output of hot - rolled coils was 3260000 tons, an increase of 10000 tons, the factory inventory was 810000 tons, an increase of 4000 tons, the social inventory was 2970000 tons, an increase of 40000 tons, the total inventory was 3780000 tons, an increase of 50000 tons, and the apparent demand was 3220000 tons, a decrease of 40000 tons. [4][5] 3.3 Industry News - From January to August, the national real estate development investment was 60309 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 12.9%. The housing construction area of real estate development enterprises was 643109 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 9.3%. Among them, the residential construction area was 448460 million square meters, a decrease of 9.6%. The new housing construction area was 39801 million square meters, a decrease of 19.5%. Among them, the new residential construction area was 29304 million square meters, a decrease of 18.3%. The housing completion area was 27694 million square meters, a decrease of 17.0%. Among them, the residential completion area was 19876 million square meters, a decrease of 18.5%. - From January to August, the national fixed - asset investment (excluding rural households) was 326111 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 0.5%. In the secondary industry, industrial investment increased by 7.7% year - on - year. Among them, mining investment increased by 3.0%, manufacturing investment increased by 5.1%, and investment in the production and supply of electricity, heat, gas, and water increased by 18.8%. In the tertiary industry, infrastructure investment (excluding the production and supply of electricity, heat, gas, and water) increased by 2.0% year - on - year. Among them, the investment in water transportation increased by 15.9%, the investment in water conservancy management increased by 7.4%, and the investment in railway transportation increased by 4.5%. [6][7] 3.4 Relevant Charts The report provides multiple charts, including the futures and monthly spread trends of rebar and hot - rolled coils, the basis trends of rebar and hot - rolled coils, the spot regional price difference trends of rebar and hot - rolled coils, the smelting profits of long - process steel mills, the short - process electric furnace profits in the East China region, the blast furnace operating rate of 247 national steel mills, the daily average hot metal output of 247 steel mills, the output, inventory, and apparent consumption of rebar and hot - rolled coils. [11][12][13]