国泰君安期货商品研究晨报：黑色系列-20250922

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The report analyzes multiple commodities in the black series, including iron ore, rebar, hot - rolled coils, ferrosilicon, silicomanganese, coke, coking coal, and logs, and concludes that iron ore, coke, and coking coal are expected to have repeated expectations and wide - range oscillations; rebar, hot - rolled coils, ferrosilicon, and silicomanganese are in wide - range oscillations; ferrosilicon and silicomanganese fluctuate around the cost line with wide - range oscillations; logs are in repeated oscillations [2]. 3. Summaries by Commodity Iron Ore - Price and Position Data: The futures price of iron ore contract 12601 is 807.5 yuan/ton, up 7.5 yuan or 0.94% from the previous day, with a position of 574,521 hands, an increase of 40,992 hands. The prices of imported and domestic iron ore in the spot market generally rose slightly. The basis for contract 12601 against Super Special ore increased by 2.4 yuan to 134.3 yuan [4]. - News: On September 17, the US Federal Reserve cut the federal funds rate target range by 25 basis points to 4.00% - 4.25% [4]. - Trend Strength: The trend strength of iron ore is 0, indicating a neutral view [4]. Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coils - Price and Position Data: The futures price of rebar contract RB2601 is 3,172 yuan/ton, up 23 yuan or 0.73%, with a trading volume of 1,250,591 hands and a position of 1,970,510 hands, a decrease of 29,174 hands. The futures price of hot - rolled coil contract HC2601 is 3,374 yuan/ton, up 6 yuan or 0.18%, with a trading volume of 459,672 hands and a position of 1,413,153 hands, an increase of 829 hands. The spot prices of rebar and hot - rolled coils in various regions showed different degrees of increase or decrease [7]. - News: On September 18, the weekly data from Steel Union showed that in terms of production, rebar production decreased by 5.48 tons, hot - rolled coil production increased by 1.35 tons, and the total production of five major varieties decreased by 1.78 tons; in terms of total inventory, rebar inventory decreased by 3.58 tons, hot - rolled coil inventory increased by 4.67 tons, and the total inventory of five major varieties increased by 5.13 tons; in terms of apparent demand, rebar demand increased by 11.96 tons, hot - rolled coil demand decreased by 4.34 tons, and the total demand of five major varieties increased by 7 tons. In August 2025, the national crude steel production was 77.37 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 0.7% [8]. - Trend Strength: The trend strength of rebar and hot - rolled coils is 0, indicating a neutral view [9]. Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - Price and Position Data: The futures price of ferrosilicon contract 2511 is 5,736 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan; the futures price of contract 2601 is 5,736 yuan/ton, down 8 yuan. The futures price of silicomanganese contract 2511 is 5,930 yuan/ton, down 18 yuan; the futures price of contract 2601 is 5,964 yuan/ton, down 6 yuan. The spot prices of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese in Inner Mongolia are 5,350 yuan/ton and 5,730 yuan/ton respectively [11]. - News: On September 19, the prices of 72 and 75 ferrosilicon in different regions changed, and the prices of silicon - manganese 6517 in the north and south were reported. As of September 19, the total manganese ore inventory decreased by 241,500 tons [11]. - Trend Strength: The trend strength of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese is 0, indicating a neutral view [13]. Coke and Coking Coal - Price and Position Data: The futures price of coking coal contract JM2601 is 1,232 yuan/ton, up 28.5 yuan or 2.4%, with a trading volume of 1,078,119 hands and a position of 723,291 hands, a decrease of 1,081 hands. The futures price of coke contract J2601 is 1,738.5 yuan/ton, up 29.5 yuan or 1.7%, with a trading volume of 23,627 hands and a position of 45,788 hands, a decrease of 644 hands. The spot prices of coking coal and coke in some regions remained stable, while some changed slightly [15]. - News: On September 17, the US Federal Reserve cut the federal funds rate target range by 25 basis points to 4.00% - 4.25% [15]. - Trend Strength: The trend strength of coke and coking coal is 0, indicating a neutral view [16]. Logs - Price and Position Data: For the 2511 contract, the closing price is 802 yuan, up 0.4% from the previous day and 0.1% week - on - week; the trading volume is 5,117 hands, a decrease of 18.9% from the previous day and 43% week - on - week; the position is 13,421 hands, a decrease of 2.1% from the previous day and 15% week - on - week. The prices of different types of logs in the spot market in Shandong and Jiangsu remained mostly stable [18]. - News: On September 17, the US Federal Reserve cut the federal funds rate target range by 25 basis points to 4.00% - 4.25% [20]. - Trend Strength: The trend strength of logs is 0, indicating a neutral view [20].