国泰君安期货商品研究晨报：绿色金融与新能源-20250922

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the given content. 2. Report's Core View - Nickel: The nickel price is oscillating at a low level due to the game between smelting inventory accumulation and ore - end expectations [2][4]. - Stainless steel: The steel price is moving in an oscillating manner as a result of the game between short - term supply - demand and cost factors [2][4]. - Lithium carbonate: With strong demand in the peak season, the price is in range - bound oscillations [2][10]. - Industrial silicon: The short - term fundamental outlook has improved [2][13]. - Polysilicon: The short - term market sentiment has cooled down [2][13]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Nickel and Stainless Steel - Fundamental Data - Nickel: The closing price of the Shanghai Nickel main contract was 121,500 yuan, with a trading volume of 62,653 lots. The price of 1 imported nickel was 121,900 yuan, and the nickel plate - high - nickel iron price difference was 265 yuan [4]. - Stainless steel: The closing price of the stainless - steel main contract was 12,860 yuan, and the trading volume was 116,925 lots. The price of 304/2B coil - wool edge (Wuxi) was 13,200 yuan [4]. - Macro and Industry News - Indonesia plans to shorten the mining quota period from three years to one year. The approved 2025 RKAB production of Indonesian nickel mines is 3.64 billion tons, higher than the 2024 target of 3.19 billion tons [4][5]. - Some nickel - iron smelting industrial parks in Indonesia have suspended production due to long - term losses, which are expected to affect the monthly nickel - iron production by about 1,900 metal tons [5][7]. - China has suspended an unofficial subsidy for copper and nickel imports from Russia [8]. Lithium Carbonate - Fundamental Data - The closing price of the 2511 contract was 73,960 yuan, and the trading volume was 370,359 lots. The spot - 2511 basis was - 460 yuan [10]. - Macro and Industry News - The SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate index price was 73,534 yuan/ton, up 70 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 73,500 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton [11]. - It is expected that the retail market of narrow - sense passenger cars in September will reach about 2.15 million units, with a month - on - month increase of 6.5% and a year - on - year increase of 2.0%. The new - energy retail volume is expected to be about 1.25 million units, and the penetration rate is expected to reach 58.1% [12]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - Fundamental Data - Industrial silicon: The closing price of the Si2511 contract was 9,305 yuan/ton, and the trading volume was 510,306 lots. The industrial silicon - social inventory was 543,000 tons [13]. - Polysilicon: The closing price of the PS2511 contract was 52,700 yuan/ton, and the trading volume was 329,612 lots. The polysilicon - N - type re - feed price was 52,600 yuan/ton [13]. - Macro and Industry News - Inner Mongolia is actively stabilizing the income level of new - energy projects, promoting the high - quality development of new energy. The new - energy power in the region has all achieved online trading [13]. - The solar panels in Hohhot are transmitting green electricity to the Shimen wind - solar power station. The project has an installed capacity of 1.7 million kilowatts of wind power and 300,000 kilowatts of photovoltaic power, with an annual green - electricity production of over 4.1 billion kilowatt - hours [13][15].