棕榈油：上下均无驱动，库存压力需要释放豆油：中美洽谈未及大豆，美豆偏弱震荡

Report Overview - The report is the Commodity Research Morning Report - Agricultural Products by Guotai Junan Futures on September 22, 2025, covering multiple agricultural products including palm oil, soybean oil, etc. [1] Investment Ratings - No investment ratings for the industry are provided in the report Core Views - Palm oil has no clear upward or downward drivers and needs to release inventory pressure [2] - Soybean oil is in a weak and volatile state as Sino - US talks did not cover soybeans [2][5] - For soybean meal, due to changing trade expectations, US soybeans are weak while Dalian soybean meal may be strong [2][12] - Soybean No.1 is in a low - level oscillation, and the market atmosphere of the soybean sector should be monitored [2][12] - For corn, attention should be paid to the listing of new grain [2][15] - Sugar is in a low - level consolidation [2][20] - The cotton market focuses on the listing situation of new cotton [2][25] - The peak season for eggs is coming to an end [2][31] - The pig market is in a stage of concentrated release of contradictions before the festival [2][34] - Peanut prices have declined [2][39] Summary by Commodity Palm Oil - Fundamentals: The closing price of the palm oil main contract was 9,316 yuan/ton during the day session with a 0.13% increase and 9,306 yuan/ton at night with a - 0.11% decrease. Trading volume decreased by 73,092 lots, and open interest decreased by 11,365 lots. The spot price in Guangdong was 9,300 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan. The basis in Guangdong was - 16 yuan/ton. [6] - News: Malaysia's ITS palm oil exports from September 1 - 20 were 1,010,032 tons [8] - Trend Strength: - 1, indicating a weak downward trend [11] Soybean Oil - Fundamentals: The closing price of the soybean oil main contract was 8,328 yuan/ton during the day session with a 0.53% increase and 8,322 yuan/ton at night with a - 0.07% decrease. Trading volume decreased by 17,302 lots, and open interest decreased by 3,418 lots. The spot price in Guangdong was 8,710 yuan/ton, up 80 yuan. The basis in Guangdong was 382 yuan/ton. [6] - News: In the 38th week (September 13 - 19), the actual soybean crushing volume of domestic oil mills was 2.4275 million tons, with an operating rate of 67.76%. It is expected to be 2.3878 million tons in the 39th week, with an operating rate of 66.65% [10] - Trend Strength: - 1, indicating a weak downward trend [11] Soybean Meal and Soybean No.1 - Fundamentals: For soybean meal, the closing price of DCE soybean meal 2601 was 3,014 yuan/ton during the day session with a 0.43% increase and 3,019 yuan/ton at night with a 0.50% increase. For soybean No.1, the closing price of DCE soybean No.1 2511 was 3,904 yuan/ton during the day session with a 0.31% increase and 3,901 yuan/ton at night with a - 0.13% decrease. [12] - News: On September 19, CBOT soybean futures closed lower as the Sino - US call did not reach an agreement on soybean exports [11][14] - Trend Strength: The trend strength of soybean meal is + 1 (strong), and that of soybean No.1 is 0 (neutral) [14] Corn - Fundamentals: The closing price of C2601 was 2,158 yuan/ton during the day session with a - 0.19 yuan change and 2,157 yuan/ton at night. The trading volume of the corn full - market decreased by 133,875 lots, and open interest increased by 15,709 lots. [15] - News: Northern corn port prices, Guangdong Shekou prices, and other price information are provided, and prices in some regions have changed [16] - Trend Strength: 0, indicating a neutral trend [18] Sugar - Fundamentals: The raw sugar price was 16.18 cents/pound, the mainstream spot price was 5,910 yuan/ton, and the futures main contract price was 5,461 yuan/ton. [20] - News: The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points. Brazil's sugar production in the second half of August increased by 18% year - on - year. Conab lowered Brazil's 25/26 sugar production forecast. China's sugar imports in August were 830,000 tons. [20] - Trend Strength: - 1, indicating a weak downward trend [23] Cotton - Fundamentals: The closing price of CF2601 was 13,720 yuan/ton during the day session with a - 0.33% decrease and 13,735 yuan/ton at night with a 0.11% increase. Spot prices in various regions declined slightly. [25] - News: Cotton spot trading was sluggish, and the cotton yarn market was generally traded. The market's expectation for the future market decreased. [26] - Trend Strength: 0, indicating a neutral trend [29] Eggs - Fundamentals: The closing price of egg 2510 was 3,025 yuan/500 kg with a - 0.53% decrease, and that of egg 2601 was 3,418 yuan/500 kg with a 0.65% increase. Spot prices in some regions declined. [31] - Trend Strength: 0, indicating a neutral trend [32] Pigs - Fundamentals: The Henan spot price was 12,930 yuan/ton, and the futures prices of different contracts showed different changes. The trading volume of some contracts decreased, and open interest changed. [35] - Market Logic: Group supply decreased, but weight increased again, and the price difference between fat and lean pigs weakened. The probability of pressure release in the spot market before the festival increased. [37] - Trend Strength: - 1, indicating a weak downward trend [36] Peanuts - Fundamentals: The price of Liaoning 308 general peanuts was 8,460 yuan/ton, up 160 yuan. The trading volume of the peanut full - market increased by 127,736 lots, and open interest increased by 1,804 lots. [39] - Spot Market: In some regions, prices were stable, and in some areas, the prices of high - quality finished products were strong. [40] - Trend Strength: 0, indicating a neutral trend [43]