Group 1: Report Overview - Report Title: Carbonate Lithium Weekly Report [1] - Report Date: September 22, 2025 [3] - Core Theme: Resource Disturbance and Game Intensify, Lithium Price Fluctuates Widely [3] Group 2: Core Views and Strategies - Last Week's Review: Due to the unclear final ruling of Jiangxi mines, the market took a break after a long - term game. With the return of the logic of over - capacity governance, the price slightly increased. However, both bulls and bears lacked confidence in the future of Jiangxi mines on September 30, and the price remained stable during the week [4] - Future Views: This week is the end of the month, and whether Jiangxi lithium mines can continue production will be gradually revealed. The bulls and bears will intensively game under various information, leading to wide - range fluctuations in lithium prices. Fundamentally, although lithium prices have dropped significantly, the supply side is less sensitive to price drops under the protection of upstream salt factory hedging orders, and production remains at a high level. The energy - storage market continues to be hot, with saturated export orders and strong demand for photovoltaic glass. The energy - storage peak season is approaching, indicating good consumption resilience. The power terminal faces slow - down pressure in growth due to a high base. There is a structural contradiction between the subsidy funds tilting upwards and the sinking of terminal consumption, which may not effectively drive significant growth in the consumption peak season, but the consumption increment expectation can still continue. Overall, carbonate lithium may still be affected by the situation of Jiangxi resources, and the actual driving force of fundamentals is limited, with lithium prices likely to fluctuate widely [4][14] Group 3: Market Data - Imported Lithium Ore (1.3% - 2.2%): The price on September 19, 2025, was $136/ton, down $2 or 1.45% from September 12 [5] - Imported Lithium Concentrate (5.5% - 6%): The price on September 19, 2025, was $812/ton, down $9 or 1.10% from September 12 [5] - Domestic Lithium Concentrate (5.5% - 6%): The price on September 19, 2025, was 812 yuan/ton, down 9 yuan or 1.10% from September 12 [5] - Spot Price of Battery - Grade Carbonate Lithium: On September 19, 2025, it was 74,000 yuan/ton, up 2,800 yuan or 3.93% from September 12 [5] - Spot Price of Industrial - Grade Carbonate Lithium: On September 19, 2025, it was 70,900 yuan/ton, up 200 yuan or 0.28% from September 12 [5] - Main Contract Price of Carbonate Lithium: On September 19, 2025, it was 73,800 yuan/ton, up 2,600 yuan or 3.62% from September 12 [5] - Battery - Grade Lithium Hydroxide (Coarse): On September 19, 2025, it was 73,900 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan or 0.14% from September 12 [5] - Battery - Grade Lithium Hydroxide (Fine): On September 19, 2025, it was 78,900 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan or 0.13% from September 12 [5] - Total Carbonate Lithium Inventory: As of September 19, it was 130,446 tons, up 280 tons or 0.22% from the previous period [5][13] - Lithium Iron Phosphate Price: On September 19, 2025, it was 33,900 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan or 0.30% from September 12 [5] - Lithium Cobalt Oxide Price: On September 19, 2025, it was 219,000 yuan/ton, up 4,000 yuan or 1.86% from September 12 [5] - Ternary Material Price (811): On September 19, 2025, it was 145,000 yuan/ton, unchanged from September 12 [5] - Ternary Material Price (622): On September 19, 2025, it was 124,500 yuan/ton, unchanged from September 12 [5] Group 4: Market Analysis and Outlook Last Week's Market Analysis - Supervision and Delivery: As of September 19, 2025, the warehouse - receipt scale of Guangzhou Futures Exchange was 39,484 tons, with the latest matching transaction price of 74,700 yuan/ton. The position scale of the main contract 2511 was 281,200 lots [7] - Supply Side: As of September 19, the weekly carbonate lithium production was 21,125 tons, an increase of 125 tons from the previous period. Recently, new production capacities have been released from salt lakes at home and abroad, and the mica - based lithium extraction in Jiangxi, China, shows signs of recovery. The overall supply side is stable. Although the decline in lithium prices has shifted from boosting to dragging down lithium concentrate, the price decline of imported lithium concentrate is similar to that of mica, and the relative economic advantage of lithium concentrate still exists, which may support the continued popularity of spodumene - based lithium extraction. Without a significant decline in lithium prices, lithium salt supply may remain at a high level in the medium - to - long term [7] - Lithium Salt Import: In July, the carbonate lithium import volume was about 13,800 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 21.8% and a year - on - year decrease of 42.7%. Among them, about 8,584 tons were imported from Chile, a month - on - month decrease of 27.6%, accounting for about 62.2%. 3,950 tons were imported from Argentina, a month - on - month decrease of 22.5%, accounting for about 28.6%. Chile's carbonate lithium export volume in July was about 20,900 tons, a year - on - year and month - on - month increase of 4% and 43% respectively. The scale of carbonate lithium exported to China was about 13,600 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 13% and a month - on - month increase of 33%, accounting for about 65.07% of Chile's total exports [8] - Lithium Ore Import: In July, the total lithium ore import volume was about 750,700 tons, a month - on - month increase of 30.3%. Among them, 427,000 tons were imported from Australia, a month - on - month increase of 67.2%, accounting for about 56.88%; about 64,000 tons were imported from Zimbabwe, a month - on - month decrease of 36.2%, accounting for about 8.5%; about 106,000 tons were imported from South Africa, a month - on - month increase of 8.1%, accounting for 14.1%; and about 116,000 tons were imported from Nigeria, a month - on - month increase of 47.3%. The significant increase in the import volume of spodumene concentrate in July was mainly due to the significant increase in mica ore prices, which made the relative economic benefits of spodumene ore more obvious, leading to a significant increase in the operating rate of spodumene - based lithium extraction capacity and thus boosting the demand for lithium ore [9][10] - Demand - Downstream Cathode Materials: As of September 19, the total lithium iron phosphate production was about 78,226 tons, with an operating rate of 68.84%, a decrease of 0.06 percentage points from the previous period, and the inventory was 50,450 tons, an increase of 900 tons from the previous period. The total ternary material production was about 17,960 tons, with an operating rate of 47%, an increase of 0.27 percentage points from the previous period, and the inventory was 12,825 tons, a decrease of 50 tons from the previous period. In terms of price, as of September 19, the ternary material price was relatively stable, with the 6 - series ternary price remaining at 141,700 yuan/ton and the 8 - series price at 147,400 yuan/ton. The price of lithium iron phosphate for power increased from 34,700 yuan/ton to 34,800 yuan/ton, and the price for energy - storage increased from 34,050 yuan/ton to 34,200 yuan/ton. Overall, there is a slight structural differentiation in the cathode material market, mainly because the energy - storage consumption is hot while the power terminal is relatively stable. Since domestic energy - storage projects are prohibited from using ternary batteries, the price of lithium iron phosphate materials is relatively strong, and the ternary price has remained stable recently. In the future, due to the structural contradiction in the power terminal, the demand intensity of the energy - storage market may still be better than that of the power market, and the price resilience of lithium iron phosphate may be stronger than that of ternary materials [11] - New - Energy Vehicles: From September 1 - 14, the retail volume of the national new - energy passenger vehicle market was 438,000 vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 6% compared with the same period in September last year and a month - on - month increase of 10%. The retail penetration rate of the national new - energy passenger vehicle market was 59.8%, and the cumulative retail volume since the beginning of this year was 8.008 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 25%. From high - frequency data, the consumption growth rate of new - energy vehicles has turned positive, and the retail market has marginally recovered. According to the data from the Passenger Car Association, the inventory of the passenger vehicle market at the end of August has dropped to 3.16 million vehicles, a decrease of about 240,000 vehicles from the high of 3.5 million vehicles in April. This shows that both car manufacturers and channels have actively reduced inventory. From the production of new - energy vehicles, since March this year, the production has been almost flat, and the production - sales ratio has continued to rise, indicating that vehicle manufacturers have a clear intention to reduce inventory. On the one hand, it is to relieve the pressure on cash flow from the 60 - day accounts - payable period, and on the other hand, it may be due to a cautious expectation of the future market. The Passenger Car Association predicts that the new subsidy policy is more inclined to high - end models, while the current social purchasing power has shifted downwards. The mismatch between the consumption structure and the subsidy structure may limit the driving force of the subsidy policy on demand [12] - Inventory: As of September 19, the total carbonate lithium inventory was 130,446 tons, a cumulative increase of about 280 tons from the previous period. Among them, the factory inventory was 26,095 tons, a decrease of about 460 tons from the previous period; the market inventory was 64,867 tons, a decrease of about 119 tons from the previous period; and the exchange inventory was 39,484 tons, an increase of 859 tons from the previous week [13] This Week's Outlook - This week is the end of the month, and whether Jiangxi lithium mines can continue production will be gradually revealed. The bulls and bears will intensively game under various information, leading to wide - range fluctuations in lithium prices. Fundamentally, although lithium prices have dropped significantly, the supply side is less sensitive to price drops under the protection of upstream salt factory hedging orders, and production remains at a high level. The energy - storage market continues to be hot, with saturated export orders and strong demand for photovoltaic glass. The energy - storage peak season is approaching, indicating good consumption resilience. The power terminal faces slow - down pressure in growth due to a high base. There is a structural contradiction between the subsidy funds tilting upwards and the sinking of terminal consumption, which may not effectively drive significant growth in the consumption peak season, but the consumption increment expectation can still continue. Overall, carbonate lithium may still be affected by the situation of Jiangxi resources, and the actual driving force of fundamentals is limited, with lithium prices likely to fluctuate widely [14] Group 5: Industry News - Tianqi Lithium Industry: The company's pilot project for an annual production of 50 tons of lithium sulfide has been officially launched. On September 16, Tianqi Lithium Industry stated on the interactive platform that in the research field of key materials for next - generation high - performance lithium batteries, the new electrolytic preparation technology has completed experimental - level verification, and the construction of the pilot line is being actively promoted; the experimental platform for the development of stable - state alloy anodes has been improved, with the ability to develop from "gram - level to kilogram - level to hundred - kilogram - level", and five types of binary lithium - alloy anode materials have entered the verification stage by battery cell customers; a stable production capacity of 300 - mm wide lithium strips has been established, and the preparation of ultra - thin composite strips has been achieved; in terms of sulfide solid - state electrolyte materials, based on the preparation work for the industrialization of lithium sulfide, the company's pilot project for an annual production of 50 tons of lithium sulfide has been officially launched in response to the demand for lithium sulfide from downstream sulfide solid - state electrolytes. The project uses self - developed new technologies and equipment for lithium sulfide preparation, with low - risk and rapid mass - production capabilities [15] - Zijin Mining: The 20,000 - ton - per - year carbonate lithium project in Argentina has been put into production. On September 14, according to Zijin Mining, on September 12 local time in Argentina, the commissioning ceremony of the 20,000 - ton - per - year carbonate lithium project of Lithium Kesi 3Q Lithium Salt Lake, a subsidiary of Zijin Mining, was held in Fiambala City, Catamarca Province. Currently, the pre - work such as the permit approval for the second - phase project is being carried out in an orderly manner, with a planned carbonate lithium production capacity of 40,000 tons/year. After the full operation of both phases, the annual production capacity is expected to reach 60,000 - 80,000 tons [15] - Hubei Liyuan: The production capacity of lithium iron phosphate has been upgraded and put into production. Hubei Liyuan, a subsidiary of Longpan Technology, announced that after more than a month of production - line upgrading and transformation, the A and B lines of the iron phosphate workshop have been fully put into production, with the production capacity steadily increasing and exceeding expectations, and the quality parameters of the offline products meeting the standards. The total investment of this project is 3 billion yuan, including a production base with an annual output of 100,000 tons of lithium iron phosphate and 50,000 tons of iron phosphate, mainly supplying to leading enterprises such as Tesla and CATL [15] Group 6: Related Charts - The report includes multiple charts showing the prices, production, and import volume of carbonate lithium, lithium hydroxide, lithium iron phosphate, ternary materials, and battery production, with data sources from iFinD, Antaike, and Tongguan Jinyuan Futures [17][19][21]
资源扰动博弈升温，锂价宽幅震荡
Tong Guan Jin Yuan Qi Huo·2025-09-22 01:30