降息未超预期，铜价震荡调整

Report Information - Report Title: Copper Weekly Report - Date: September 22, 2025 - Main Theme: Interest rate cuts did not exceed expectations, and copper prices oscillated and adjusted [1] Investment Rating - The provided content does not mention the industry investment rating. Core View - Last week, copper prices declined from high levels. The main reason was that the Fed's interest rate cut in September did not exceed expectations. Market risk appetite declined, and the US dollar index rebounded, pressuring the metal market. Fundamentally, overseas mine interference rates continued to rise, the domestic consumption peak season arrived, and new scrap copper tax policies hindered domestic production release. The social inventory turned downward, and the near - month contract shifted to a Back structure. - The market has fully priced in the expectation of 2 - 3 interest rate cuts this year. Some overseas fund long positions took profits. Powell indicated no need to start a large - scale easing cycle, causing market risk appetite to decline and the US dollar to rebound, pressuring the metal sector. Domestically, the capital market sentiment was high. Fundamentally, overseas mine interference rates continued to rise, refined copper production was expected to decline, and the domestic tight - balance structure would intensify. Short - term copper prices were expected to oscillate and adjust [2][10] Summary by Directory 1. Market Data - Contract Prices: LME copper decreased from $10,064.50/ton to $9,996.50/ton, a decline of 0.68%; COMEX copper dropped from 464.8 cents/pound to 463.05 cents/pound, a decline of 0.38%; SHFE copper fell from 81,060 yuan/ton to 79,850 yuan/ton, a decline of 1.49%; international copper decreased from 72,030 yuan/ton to 70,810 yuan/ton, a decline of 1.69%. The Shanghai - London ratio decreased from 8.05 to 7.99 [3] - Inventory: As of September 19, the total inventory of LME, COMEX, SHFE, and Shanghai bonded area rose to 646,720 tons. LME copper inventory decreased by 6,300 tons (4.09%); COMEX inventory increased by 6,287 short - tons (2.02%); SHFE inventory increased by 11,760 tons (12.51%); Shanghai bonded area inventory decreased by 500 tons (0.65%) [6] 2. Market Analysis and Outlook - Price Fluctuation Reasons: The Fed's interest rate cut in September did not exceed expectations, which alleviated market concerns about the Fed's independence, causing market risk appetite to decline and the US dollar to rebound, pressuring the metal market. Fundamentally, overseas mine interference rates continued to rise, the domestic consumption peak season arrived, new scrap copper tax policies hindered domestic production release, and the social inventory turned downward [2][7] - Inventory Status: As of September 19, the global inventory continued to rise slightly. LME copper inventory decreased, and the cancellation warrant ratio dropped to 9.75%; SHFE inventory increased but remained at a low level; Shanghai bonded area inventory was basically flat. The LME inventory shifted from accumulation to depletion, while the US copper inventory continued to increase. The Shanghai - London ratio dropped below 8 [7] - Macro - situation: The Fed cut the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to 4% - 4.25%. The latest dot - plot showed that there might be another 50 - basis - point cut this year and 25 - basis - point cuts in 2026 and 2027. Domestically, in August, the profits of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 5.2% year - on - year, and from January to August, the cumulative profit growth was 6.2% [7][8] - Supply and Demand: Overseas mine interference rates continued to rise, and refined copper production was expected to decline. The new scrap copper tax policy hindered domestic production release. On the demand side, power grid investment projects started, the copper cable industry's operating rate returned to about 80%, and the new energy vehicle industry was approaching the peak season. The domestic tight - balance structure intensified, and the near - month contract price continued to rise, shifting the structure back to Back [2][9][10] 3. Industry News - Anglo American and Codelco signed an agreement to jointly operate adjacent mines in central Chile, which is expected to release at least $5 billion in value and produce an additional 2.7 million tons of copper in 21 years [11] - Freeport McMoRan's Grasberg mine in Indonesia has been suspended due to a mud - flow accident. The long - term suspension may lead to continuously high copper prices. The global copper smelting industry has been facing a serious shortage of concentrates this year [12] 4. Related Charts - The report provides 18 charts, including the price trends of SHFE copper and LME copper, inventory changes in LME, COMEX, SHFE, and Shanghai bonded area, copper basis, spread, and other data, with data sources from iFinD and Tongguan Jinyuan Futures [15][17][23]