豆粕周报：远端供应仍不确定，连粕止跌震荡-20250922

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Last week, the CBOT November soybean contract dropped 19.25 to close at 1026 cents per bushel, a decline of 1.84%; the soybean meal 01 contract fell 65 to close at 3014 yuan per ton, a decline of 2.11%; the South China soybean meal spot price dropped 30 to close at 2950 yuan per ton, a decline of 2.0%; the rapeseed meal 01 contract declined 9 to close at 2522 yuan per ton, a decline of 0.36%; the Guangxi rapeseed meal spot price dropped 20 to close at 2560 yuan per ton, a decline of 0.77% [4][7]. - The decline of US soybeans was mainly due to demand concerns, and the drop of soybean meal was mainly because of sufficient spot supply and weak basis operation. The market expected a possible Sino - US agricultural product procurement agreement, leading to the downward oscillation of Dalian soybean meal. Rapeseed meal was relatively resistant to decline as it continued the de - stocking rhythm and future supply was gradually tightening [4][7]. - Precipitation in Brazilian production areas is conducive to sowing. The pressure of US soybean harvest is emerging, the export sales progress is slow, and demand concerns lead to the decline of the external market. The high operating rate of oil mills, high soybean meal inventory, and sufficient spot supply. Although the feed enterprises have inventory replenishment needs before the double festivals, it is expected to be limited. The procurement of old - crop Brazilian soybeans has slowed down, the premium has declined, and the support of import cost has weakened. The Sino - US agricultural product procurement agreement has not been confirmed, and the follow - up Sino - US economic and trade progress should be monitored. Recently, Dalian soybean meal has stopped falling and is expected to oscillate in a short - term range [4][11]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Data - The CBOT November soybean contract price dropped from 1045.25 to 1026 cents per bushel, a decline of 1.84%; the CNF import price of Brazilian soybeans decreased from 490 to 484 dollars per ton, a decline of 1.22%; the CNF import price of US Gulf soybeans dropped from 466 to 459 dollars per ton, a decline of 1.50%; the Brazilian soybean crushing profit on the disk decreased by 3.08 yuan per ton; the soybean meal 01 contract price fell from 3079 to 3014 yuan per ton, a decline of 2.11%; the rapeseed meal 01 contract price declined from 2531 to 2522 yuan per ton, a decline of 0.36%; the East China soybean meal spot price dropped from 3000 to 2940 yuan per ton, a decline of 2.00%; the South China soybean meal spot price decreased from 2980 to 2950 yuan per ton, a decline of 1.01%; the South China spot - futures price difference increased by 35 yuan per ton [5]. Market Analysis and Outlook - As of the week of September 14, 2025, the US soybean good - to - excellent rate was 63%, the harvest rate was 5%, the defoliation rate was 41%, and about 36% of the planting areas were affected by drought [8]. - As of the week of September 11, 2025, the net export sales of US soybeans in the 2025/2026 season was 92.3 tons, and the cumulative sales volume was 1028 tons. China has not purchased new - crop US soybeans. As of the week of September 12, 2025, the US soybean crushing gross profit was 3.14 dollars per bushel. The NOPA monthly report showed that the US soybean oil inventory in August 2025 was 1.245 billion pounds, and the soybean crushing volume was 189.81 million bushels [9]. - As of last Thursday, the sowing of Brazilian 2025/2026 soybeans was 0.12% of the total estimated area. The soybean export volume in September is expected to rise to 753 tons. As of the week of September 12, 2025, the soybean inventory of major oil mills was 733.2 tons, the soybean meal inventory was 116.44 tons, the unexecuted contract was 588.7 tons, and the national port soybean inventory was 968.6 tons [10]. - As of the week of September 19, 2025, the daily average trading volume of national soybean meal was 132,540 tons, the daily average pick - up volume was 198,284 tons, the main oil mills' crushing volume was 2.4275 million tons, and the feed enterprises' soybean meal inventory days were 9.42 days [11]. Industry News - As of last Thursday, the sowing of Brazilian 2025/26 soybeans was 0.12% of the total estimated area, slightly higher than 0.06% of the same period last year. The expected output of the new season is 180 million tons. In the Toledo area of Brazil, about 4,900 hectares of soybeans have been planted, accounting for 1% of the planned area [12]. - As of the week of September 7, 2025, the Canadian rapeseed export volume decreased by 1.5% to 47,200 tons. From August 1 to September 7, 2025, the export volume was 529,500 tons, a decrease of 53.4% compared with the same period last year. The commercial inventory was 516,200 tons [13]. - The estimated output of Brazilian 2024/25 soybeans remained at 170.3 million tons, the estimated export volume in 2025 remained at 109.5 million tons, and the estimated crushing volume in 2025 was raised to 58.5 million tons [13]. - Ukrainian rapeseed exports have been blocked for two consecutive weeks due to disputes over customs documents after a 10% export tariff was imposed [13]. - The estimated output of Australian 2025/26 rapeseed is 6.1 million tons, an increase of 3.4%. The estimated output of EU and UK rapeseed in 2025 is 21.6 million tons, higher than the previous estimate [14]. - The estimated output of Canadian rapeseed in 2025 is expected to increase by 4.1% to 2 million tons, with a 6.2% increase in yield per unit area and a 2.0% decrease in harvest area [14]. - The CONAB agency estimated that the Brazilian 2025/2026 soybean output will increase by 3.6% to 177.67 million tons, and the planting area will be 49.08 million hectares [15]. Relevant Charts - The report provides multiple charts, including the trend of US soybean continuous contracts, Brazilian soybean CNF arrival price, RMB spot exchange rate trend, regional crushing profit, soybean meal main contract trend, etc., to visually present relevant data [16][17][20][22].