研究所晨会观点精萃-20250922

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - Overseas: The Fed announced an expected rate cut but hinted at no rush for rapid cuts in the coming months. The US initial jobless claims had the largest decline in nearly four years, the US dollar index continued to rebound, and global risk appetite increased. Domestically: China's August consumption, January - August investment, and industrial added - value growth were all lower than previous values and market expectations, with domestic demand continuing to slow. However, short - term external risk uncertainty decreased and domestic easing expectations increased, leading to an overall rise in domestic risk appetite. The recent market trading logic focuses on domestic incremental stimulus policies and easing expectations, with short - term macro upward drivers strengthening. [2] - For assets: The stock index is expected to fluctuate in the short term, with cautious short - term long positions. Treasury bonds will fluctuate in the short term, and it's advisable to watch cautiously. In the commodity sector, black, non - ferrous, and energy - chemical products will fluctuate in the short term, with cautious short - term watching; precious metals will fluctuate strongly at high levels in the short term, with cautious short - term long positions. [2] Summary by Related Catalogs Macro Finance - Overseas: The Fed's rate cut, large decline in initial jobless claims led to the US dollar index rebound and increased global risk appetite. Domestically: Consumption, investment, and industrial added - value growth were lower than expected, with domestic demand slowing. Policies like the measures to expand service consumption were introduced. The trading logic focuses on domestic policies and easing expectations, with short - term upward drivers strengthening. [2] - Asset Recommendations: Stock index - short - term fluctuation, cautious short - term long; Treasury bonds - short - term fluctuation, cautious watching; black - short - term fluctuation, cautious watching; non - ferrous - short - term fluctuation, cautious watching; energy - chemical - short - term fluctuation, cautious watching; precious metals - short - term high - level strong fluctuation, cautious long. [2] Stock Index - The domestic stock market declined slightly due to the drag of sectors like humanoid robots, automobiles, and biomedicine. Fundamentals showed slow domestic demand. Policies aimed at expanding service consumption were introduced. Risk appetite increased. The trading logic focuses on policies and easing expectations, with short - term upward drivers strengthening. Short - term cautious long positions are recommended. [3] Black Metal - Steel: The steel futures and spot markets rebounded slightly. The Sino - US leaders' call and national meeting boosted market sentiment. Demand improved slightly but varied by variety, and supply decreased slightly. There were rumors of production restrictions in Tangshan. The market is likely to fluctuate in the short term. [4] - Iron Ore: Futures and spot prices rebounded. Steel mill profits narrowed but didn't trigger production cuts, and iron ore inventory increased due to pre - holiday restocking. Supply remained high, and port inventory increased slightly. The price will fluctuate in the short term. [4][5] - Glass: The glass market had stable supply and slightly improved demand but limited increments. With repeated policy sentiment, it will fluctuate in the short term. [6] Non - Ferrous and New Energy - Copper: The Fed's rate cut and positive Sino - US - Spanish economic and trade talks boosted market sentiment. However, copper demand may decline marginally, and the US economic slowdown restricts upward space. [7] - Aluminum: The price was flat. The recent increase was due to the Fed's rate cut and copper price spill - over, but the fundamentals are weak with increasing inventory. [7] - Silicon Manganese/Silicon Ferrosilicon: Spot prices were flat, and futures prices declined slightly. Supply increased slightly. Silicon ferrosilicon prices were supported by cost, and the market will continue to fluctuate. [8] - Soda Ash: The market had high supply, high inventory, and weak demand. In the short term, supply and demand will increase with the arrival of the peak season and upstream maintenance. In the long term, supply - side contradictions will drag down the price. [8] - Aluminum Alloy: Waste aluminum supply is tight, and demand is weak in the off - season. The price will fluctuate strongly in the short term but with limited upward space. [9] - Tin: Supply - side开工率 was low but expected to recover. Demand was weak. Inventory decreased significantly this week. The price will fluctuate in the short term with limited upward space. [9] - Lithium Carbonate: Production reached a new high, and inventory decreased slightly. Supply and demand increased, and the market will fluctuate strongly with attention to the upper pressure range. [10] - Industrial Silicon: Production increased, and inventory increased slightly. Supply and demand increased, and the price will fluctuate strongly in the short term. [10] - Polysilicon: The downstream prices changed, and inventory decreased slightly. There were rumors of storage and capacity reduction policies. It's easy to rise and difficult to fall, and it's advisable to go long at low prices. [11] Energy and Chemical - Crude Oil: The Fed's rate cut, good US inventory data, and geopolitical risks in Venezuela and Russia provided support to oil prices. The price will fluctuate with support in the short term. [12] - Asphalt: The price followed the stable oil price with limited upward space. Basis is decreasing, and inventory is not significantly reduced. It's necessary to pay attention to the follow - up increase with oil prices. [13][14] - PX: It will fluctuate weakly with support. The PXN spread decreased, and the polyester market declined. [8] - PTA: Downstream demand was weak, and inventory increased. However, low processing fees led to more maintenance plans, and there is support at the previous low. The price may decline in the short term. [8] - Ethylene Glycol: Port inventory increased, and demand was weak. The price will continue to fluctuate. [15] - Short - Fibre: It adjusted with the polyester sector. Terminal orders increased seasonally, and inventory increased slightly. The upward space is limited. [15] - Methanol: Supply was in excess, and high inventory pressured the price. [15] - PP: Production decreased due to maintenance, and downstream demand improved. However, supply remained loose, and the price will fluctuate weakly in the short term. [15] - LLDPE: Supply increased, and demand was weak. With low inventory and stable oil prices, the price will fluctuate weakly. [16] - Urea: Supply was strong, demand was weak, and inventory was divided. The market is under pressure in the short term. [16][17] Agricultural Products - US Soybeans: At the beginning of the US soybean listing, there were expectations of a decrease in the USDA - estimated yield. However, new harvests and lack of Chinese orders will increase downward pressure. [17] - Soybean and Rapeseed Meal: The domestic short - term supply was in excess. It's expected to stabilize in late September and October due to supply contraction in the fourth quarter and potential adjustment of the USDA - estimated yield. Rapeseed meal follows the soybean meal market. [17] - Oils and Fats: International oil and oilseed prices weakened. Palm oil production may recover, and exports decreased. Domestic palm oil demand weakened, and inventory increased. Soybean oil supply was sufficient, and consumption support was limited. The market for rapeseed oil was cautious. The domestic oil market will fluctuate with downward pressure. [17] - Corn: The new corn in Northeast China was listed smoothly, and the price was stable. The price in North China continued to fall but at a slower pace. The price in the sales area was stable. There is an expectation of price decline during the concentrated listing period from mid - October to November. [17] - Pork: With pork purchases for storage and pre - holiday stocking, the pork price may have a phased stable rebound. [17]