生猪周报：出栏体重略增，猪价震荡偏弱-20250922

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Spot prices are expected to fluctuate weakly. Based on sow and piglet data, there may still be a slight increase in hog slaughter volume by December, and with ample supply, it's difficult for hog prices to rise significantly and continuously. The fat - standard price difference exists, which may enhance farmers' willingness to increase weight. If the price weakness persists, a negative cycle may form, and if so, hog prices are expected to rebound at the end of the year. One could consider a reverse spread of the 11 - 01 contract [1]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures End - 主力合约基差情况: Affected by the weak performance of the spot market, this week's futures prices fluctuated weakly [2]. - 各合约价格变化情况: The prices of far - month contracts fluctuated and adjusted [5]. - 月间价差变化: The inter - month spreads fluctuated and adjusted. With the weakness of the spot market, the 11 - 01 contract showed a reverse spread trend [7][10]. 3.2 Spot End - 猪价与宰量: This week, the slaughter volume increased steadily, and hog prices fluctuated weakly [13]. - 区域价差: Regional price differences were relatively reasonable [15]. - 肥标价差: The fat - standard price difference fluctuated and adjusted. Attention should be paid to whether the fat - standard price difference can strengthen after the weather turns cool, which may enhance the weight - increasing willingness of scattered farmers if it does [17]. - 鲜销与毛白价差: Terminal consumption was relatively stable year - on - year [19]. - 相关产品比价与鲜冻价差: The cost - effectiveness of pork was average. The fresh - frozen price difference of No. 2 meat weakened, and the cost - effectiveness of frozen products was lower than that of fresh products [21]. - 养殖利润: Self - breeding and self - raising still had profits, while purchasing piglets for fattening was in a slight loss state [23]. - 出栏体重: The average slaughter weight increased this week [25]. 3.3 Capacity End - 能繁母猪存栏量: According to Ministry of Agriculture data, the national inventory of reproductive sows at the end of July was 40.42 million, with a month - on - month and year - on - year increase of 0.0%. Yongyi Consulting data showed that in August, the inventory of reproductive sows in its sample 1 increased by 0.02% month - on - month, compared with 0.14% in the previous month. Mysteel data showed that in August, the inventory of reproductive sows in its sample large - scale enterprises decreased by 0.83% month - on - month, compared with an increase of 0.01% in the previous month [27]. - 母猪淘汰情况: This week, the price of culled sows showed a weak trend. The slaughter volume of culled sows increased month - on - month in August, indicating an increase in the market's enthusiasm for capacity reduction [29]. - 母猪生产效率与新生健仔数: In August, the number of healthy newborn piglets increased by 0.15% month - on - month (previous value: + 0.06%), corresponding to an overall fluctuating increase in the volume of hogs to be slaughtered in February next year (calculated based on a 6 - month fattening period) [31]. - 母猪、仔猪补栏积极性: This week, the price of 15 - kg piglets was stable with a weak trend, and the price of 50 - kg binary sows was weak [33]. 3.4 Slaughter End - The slaughter volume continued to increase month - on - month. According to Ministry of Agriculture data, the slaughter volume of designated enterprises in July was 31.66 million, a month - on - month increase of 5.3% and a year - on - year increase of 30.4%. In terms of frozen products, the market will gradually enter the de - stocking stage, and its impact on hog prices will change from positive to neutral - negative [35]. 3.5 Import End - In August 2025, the pork import volume was about 80,000 tons, a decrease of about 7,600 tons compared with the previous month. Currently, the scale of pork imports is limited, and its impact on domestic hog prices is relatively limited [38].