高盛中国经济展望_2025 年 9 月 -GS China Economic Outlook_ September 2025

Investment Rating - The report maintains a growth forecast for China's real GDP at 4.8% for 2025, aligning with consensus expectations [17][8]. Core Insights - The report highlights that while elevated US tariffs on Chinese goods will negatively impact real GDP growth, the growth of exports to other countries is expected to provide a partial offset, with an anticipated export volume growth of 7.5% in 2025 [7][14]. - The fiscal deficit is projected to widen by 1.9 percentage points of GDP in 2025 compared to 2024, with total social financing stock growth expected to rise to 9.0% [7][52]. - Inflation forecasts indicate a CPI of 0.0% and a PPI of -2.8% in 2025, which are below consensus expectations [7][44]. - The report emphasizes the importance of China's 15th Five-Year Plan, which will focus on security, technology, and boosting domestic consumption to create new growth engines [7][5]. Summary by Sections Macro Views for 2025 - Real GDP growth is forecasted at 4.8%, with domestic demand growth at 3.5% and consumption growth at 4.6% [8][5]. - Exports of goods are expected to grow by 4.9% in nominal USD terms, while imports are projected to decline by 0.6% [8][5]. Inflation and Fiscal Policy - CPI is expected to remain at 0.0%, while PPI is forecasted to decline by 2.8% [8][44]. - The augmented fiscal deficit is projected to be 12.5% of GDP in 2025, reflecting increased government expenditure [52][8]. Structural Economic Changes - The report notes a structural shift towards high-tech product exports, with a revised growth forecast for total goods export volume at 7.5% in 2025 [14][12]. - The anticipated appreciation of the CNY against the USD is also highlighted, indicating a strengthening currency [85][8]. Investment and Consumption Policies - Various easing measures are expected to support consumption and investment, including a consumer goods trade-in program and strategic infrastructure investments [66][7]. - The report outlines that the government will implement policies aimed at enhancing credit support for services and technological innovation [66][7].