Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - The demand for lithium carbonate is strong during the peak season, and the price is expected to fluctuate within a certain range [1]. - Supported by policies and the release of peak - season demand, the retail market of narrow - sense passenger cars in September is expected to reach about 2.15 million units, a month - on - month increase of 6.5% and a year - on - year increase of 2.0%. The new energy retail volume is expected to be about 1.25 million, and the penetration rate is expected to reach 58.1%, hitting a new high [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - Futures Market Data: The closing prices of the 2511 and 2601 contracts of lithium carbonate increased compared to the previous trading days. For example, the 2511 contract closed at 73,960, up 1,080 from T - 1; the 2601 contract closed at 74,040, up 1,100 from T - 1. The trading volumes and open interests of the two contracts also changed, with the trading volume of the 2511 contract at 370,359, down 131,910 from T - 1, and the open interest at 281,264, down 147 from T - 1 [1]. - Spot and Basis Data: The spot - 2511 was - 460, and the spot - 2601 was - 540. The basis between 2511 - 2601 was - 80. The price difference between electric - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate (electro - carbon - industrial carbon) was 2,250 [1]. - Raw Material and Lithium Salt Data: The price of lithium spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF China) was 859, up 1 from T - 1; the price of lithium mica (2.0% - 2.5%) was 1,880, up 65 from T - 1. The price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 73,500, up 50 from T - 1 [1]. 3.2 Macro and Industry News - The SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate index price was 73,534 yuan/ton, up 70 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 73,500 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton; the average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 71,250 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton [2]. - According to the latest research data of the China Automobile Dealers Association, the retail targets of leading manufacturers accounting for nearly 80% of the total market sales are generally high this month. The retail market of narrow - sense passenger cars in September is expected to reach about 2.15 million units, a month - on - month increase of 6.5% and a year - on - year increase of 2.0%. The new energy retail volume is expected to be about 1.25 million, and the penetration rate is expected to reach 58.1% [3]. 3.3 Trend Intensity The trend intensity of lithium carbonate is 0, indicating a neutral trend [3].
碳酸锂：旺季需求偏强，区间震荡
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo·2025-09-22 01:53