生猪：节前集中释放矛盾阶段

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 2: Core View of the Report - The probability of concentrated pressure release in the spot market before the double festivals increases, and the spot price center will further decline. The near - month contracts face a situation of high production capacity, high inventory, and high premium. The 11 - month contract's position reaches a new high, and the market game enters an accelerated stage. The price center of the March and May contracts may decline, and the spread structure of the July contract maintains a reverse spread. The short - term support level of the LH2511 contract is 12,000 yuan/ton, and the pressure level is 13,000 yuan/ton [4] Group 3: Summary According to the Catalog 1. Pig Fundamental Data - Price: The prices of Henan, Sichuan, and Guangdong spot are 12,930 yuan/ton, 12,450 yuan/ton, and 13,460 yuan/ton respectively. The prices of futures contracts such as生猪2511,生猪2601, and生猪2603 are 12,825 yuan/ton, 13,350 yuan/ton, and 12,840 yuan/ton respectively [2] - Volume and Open Interest: The trading volumes of生猪2511,生猪2601, and生猪2603 are 38,008 lots, 18,413 lots, and 5,682 lots respectively, with changes of - 19,098 lots, - 6,891 lots, and - 4,080 lots compared to the previous day. The open interests are 96,751 lots, 66,786 lots, and 44,955 lots respectively, with changes of - 2,238 lots, 120 lots, and 1,963 lots compared to the previous day [2] - Spread: The basis of生猪2511,生猪2601, and生猪2603 are 105 yuan/ton, - 420 yuan/ton, and 90 yuan/ton respectively. The spreads of生猪11 - 1 and生猪1 - 3 are - 525 yuan/ton and 510 yuan/ton respectively [2] 2. Trend Intensity - The trend intensity is - 1, indicating a relatively bearish view [3] 3. Market Logic - Group significantly reduces supply, but the weight increases again, and the price difference between fat and lean pigs weakens, indicating a serious passive inventory accumulation. The overall supply in September increases significantly. The production capacity cycle and inventory cycle resonate from September to October. The near - month contracts face high production capacity, high inventory, and high premium. The purchase sentiment of piglets declines, and the price drops accelerate, corresponding to a decline in the cost of slaughter in March - May [4]