Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - The trend strength of methanol is rated as 0, indicating a neutral stance. The range of trend strength is an integer within the [-2, 2] interval, with -2 being the most bearish and 2 being the most bullish [5]. 2) Core View of the Report - The methanol price is expected to be in a state of oscillatory pressure, but the downside space is gradually narrowing. The upside pressure mainly comes from the supply - side of the fundamentals, while the downside support comes from the expectation of improved fundamentals and the tone of China's anti - involution policy [4][5]. 3) Summary by Relevant Sections Fundamental Tracking - In the futures market, the closing price of the methanol main contract (01 contract) was 2,361 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan from the previous day; the settlement price was 2,356 yuan/ton, unchanged; the trading volume was 756,698 lots, an increase of 161,276 lots; the open interest was 928,408 lots, a decrease of 14,496 lots; the number of warehouse receipts was 9,892 tons, a decrease of 315 tons; the trading volume was 1.782594 billion yuan, an increase of 380.062 million yuan. The basis was - 108, down 9 from the previous day, and the monthly spread (MA01 - MA05) was - 20, up 19 from the previous day [2]. - In the spot market, the Jiangsu ex - tank price was 0 yuan/ton, down 2,280 yuan from the previous day; the Inner Mongolia price was 2,070 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan; the northern Shaanxi price was 2,070 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan; the Shandong price was 2,310 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan [2]. Market Analysis - As of September 17, 2025, the inventory of Chinese methanol ports was 155.78 million tons, an increase of 0.75 million tons from the previous period, a month - on - month increase of 0.48%. The inventory in East China decreased, while that in South China continued to increase [4]. - The short - term main contract shows an oscillatory pressure pattern. The upside pressure comes from the high import volume and high daily output in the supply - side of the fundamentals, which leads to an increase in inventory. The downside support comes from the expectation of improved fundamentals and the tone of China's anti - involution policy. Before the next Fed meeting in October and the Fourth Plenary Session of the CPC Central Committee, the impact of the macro - end on the commodity market is relatively limited [4][5].
甲醇：震荡承压，下方空间收窄
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo·2025-09-22 01:52