工业硅:短期基本面预期有所改善,多晶硅:短期市场情绪有所降温
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo·2025-09-22 01:51
- Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term fundamental outlook for industrial silicon has improved, while the short - term market sentiment for polysilicon has cooled down [1] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking 3.1.1 Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon Futures Market - Si2511 closing price is 9,305 yuan/ton, with a volume of 510,306 lots and an open interest of 311,097 lots. PS2511 closing price is 52,700 yuan/ton, with a volume of 329,612 lots and an open interest of 115,849 lots [1] 3.1.2 Basis - Industrial silicon spot premiums or discounts vary when benchmarked against different products. For example, the premium against East China Si5530 is +445 yuan/ton. Polysilicon spot premium against N - type re - feed is - 1105 yuan/ton [1] 3.1.3 Price - The price of Xinjiang 99 - silicon is 8800 yuan/ton, Yunnan Si4210 is 9850 yuan/ton, and polysilicon - N - type re - feed is 52600 yuan/ton [1] 3.1.4 Profit - Silicon plant profits in Xinjiang (new standard 553) are - 2366 yuan/ton, and in Yunnan (new standard 553) are - 3311 yuan/ton. Polysilicon enterprise profits are - 14.1 yuan/kg [1] 3.1.5 Inventory - Industrial silicon social inventory (including warehouse receipt inventory) is 54.3 million tons, enterprise inventory is 17.5 million tons, and industry inventory is 71.8 million tons. Polysilicon manufacturer inventory is 21.9 million tons [1] 3.1.6 Raw Material Cost - The price of Xinjiang silicon ore is 320 yuan/ton, and Yunnan silicon ore is 290 yuan/ton. The price of Xinjiang washed coking coal is 1725 yuan/ton, and Ningxia washed coking coal is 1100 yuan/ton [1] 3.1.7 Polysilicon (Photovoltaic) Price - The price of silicon wafers (N - type - 210mm) is 1.68 yuan/piece, battery cells (TOPCon - 210mm) is 0.305 yuan/watt, and components (N - type - 210mm, centralized) is 0.682 yuan/watt [1] 3.1.8 Organic Silicon Price and Profit - The price of DMC is 10800 yuan/ton, and DMC enterprise profit is - 1123 yuan/ton [1] 3.1.9 Aluminum Alloy Price and Profit - The price of ADC12 is 20950 yuan/ton, and the profit of recycled aluminum enterprises is 170 yuan/ton [1] 3.2 Macro and Industry News - Inner Mongolia is actively stabilizing the revenue level of new energy projects, promoting the high - quality development of new energy. In 2025, Hohhot plans to implement 107 key projects in the new energy industrial cluster with an investment of 96.9 billion yuan [3] 3.3 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of industrial silicon is 0, and that of polysilicon is also 0, indicating a neutral outlook [3]