申万期货品种策略日报：聚烯烃（LL、PP）-20250922

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - Polyolefins closed down with a negative candlestick. The spot market of polyolefins is still mainly driven by supply - demand fundamentals. Currently, PE inventory is being slowly digested, and PP inventory has also improved. After the Fed's interest rate cut last week, the market declined due to concerns about future demand fulfillment. In the medium term, with the interaction of cost and supply - demand factors, polyolefins may continue to oscillate in a low - level range. In the short term, attention should be paid to the terminal stocking rhythm before and after the National Day holiday. After continuous declines, polyolefins may gradually stop falling this week [2] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market - Prices and Changes: For LL, the previous day's closing prices for January, May, and September contracts were 7169, 7223, and 7250 respectively, with price drops of - 19, - 10, and - 30 and percentage drops of - 0.26%, - 0.14%, and - 0.41%. For PP, the previous day's closing prices for January, May, and September contracts were 6914, 6958, and 6928 respectively, with price drops of - 12, - 5, and - 3 and percentage drops of - 0.17%, - 0.07%, and - 0.04% [2] - Trading Volume and Open Interest: The trading volumes of LL for January, May, and September contracts were 201711, 10840, and 74 respectively, and the open interests were 556313, 40101, and 92 respectively, with open - interest increases of 26840, 1877, and 25. For PP, the trading volumes for January, May, and September contracts were 230403, 18721, and 353 respectively, and the open interests were 609908, 73691, and 1589 respectively, with open - interest increases of 35189, 2630, and 14 [2] - Spreads: For LL, the current spreads of January - May, May - September, and September - January are - 54, - 27, and 81 respectively, compared to previous values of - 45, - 47, and 92. For PP, the current spreads of January - May, May - September, and September - January are - 44, 30, and 14 respectively, compared to previous values of - 37, 32, and 5 [2] Raw Material and Spot Market - Raw Materials: The current prices of methanol futures, Shandong propylene, South China propane, PP recycled materials, North China powder, and mulch film are 2348 yuan/ton, 6625 yuan/ton, 591 dollars/ton, 5600 yuan/ton, 6750 yuan/ton, and 8800 yuan/ton respectively. The previous prices were 2364 yuan/ton, 6625 yuan/ton, 593 dollars/ton, 5600 yuan/ton, 6750 yuan/ton, and 8800 yuan/ton [2] - Mid - stream Spot Market: For LL, the current price ranges in the East China, North China, and South China markets are 7150 - 7700 yuan/ton, 7100 - 7400 yuan/ton, and 7300 - 7750 yuan/ton respectively, compared to previous ranges of 7200 - 7700 yuan/ton, 7150 - 7400 yuan/ton, and 7300 - 7750 yuan/ton. For PP, the current price ranges in the East China, North China, and South China markets are 6750 - 6900 yuan/ton, 6750 - 6850 yuan/ton, and 6700 - 6900 yuan/ton respectively, compared to previous ranges of 6750 - 6900 yuan/ton, 6750 - 6850 yuan/ton, and 6700 - 6950 yuan/ton [2] News - On Friday (September 19), the settlement price of West Texas Intermediate crude oil futures for October 2025 on the New York Mercantile Exchange was $62.68 per barrel, down $0.89 or 1.40% from the previous trading day, with a trading range of $62.6 - $63.65. The settlement price of Brent crude oil futures for November 2025 on the London Intercontinental Exchange was $66.68 per barrel, down $0.76 or 1.13% from the previous trading day, with a trading range of $66.44 - $67.57 [2]