铅：消费边际改善，价格偏强震荡

Report Summary 1) Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2) Core View The report indicates that the consumption of lead has marginally improved, and the price will fluctuate strongly [1]. 3) Summary by Relevant Contents Fundamental Tracking - Price: The closing price of the main contract of Shanghai lead futures was 17,180 yuan/ton, up 0.20%; the closing price of the LME 3M electronic disk of lead was 2,003 US dollars/ton, down 0.05% [1]. - Volume: The trading volume of the main contract of Shanghai lead futures was 35,232 lots, a decrease of 3,911 lots; the trading volume of LME lead was 3,727 lots, a decrease of 1,322 lots [1]. - Open Interest: The open interest of the main contract of Shanghai lead futures was 53,199 lots, an increase of 14,163 lots; the open interest of LME lead was 165,542 lots, an increase of 1,168 lots [1]. - Premium and Discount: The premium and discount of Shanghai 1 lead was -15 yuan/ton, unchanged; the LME CASH - 3M premium and discount was -43.72 US dollars/ton, an increase of 0.33 US dollars/ton [1]. - Import and Export: The import profit and loss of lead ingot spot was -294.95 yuan/ton, a decrease of 33.62 yuan/ton; the import profit and loss of Shanghai lead continuous three - month contract was -385.53 yuan/ton, a decrease of 15.37 yuan/ton [1]. - Inventory: The inventory of Shanghai lead futures was 47,289 tons, a decrease of 2,086 tons; the LME lead inventory was 220,300 tons, a decrease of 2,375 tons [1]. - Recycled Lead: The price of waste electric vehicle batteries was 9,975 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of recycled refined lead was 16,925 yuan/ton, an increase of 50 yuan/ton; the comprehensive profit and loss of recycled lead was 31 yuan/ton, an increase of 50 yuan/ton [1]. News - Fed's Kashkari believes that two more interest rate cuts this year are appropriate, and the risk in the labor market may be greater than the inflation risk [1]. - The State Council Information Office will hold a press conference on the theme of "High - quality Completion of the 14th Five - Year Plan" on September 22, 2025 [1]. Lead Trend Intensity The lead trend intensity is 0, indicating a neutral view, with the value ranging from -2 (most bearish) to 2 (most bullish) [1].