商品期货早班车-20250922

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The de - dollarization logic remains unchanged. Although the Fed has cut interest rates as expected, there are contradictions in the outlook. Gold prices are at historical highs, with short - term high - level fluctuations and a mid - term bullish outlook. Silver follows gold and is recommended to be on the sidelines [1]. - For copper, after the market stabilizes following the decline due to the interest rate cut, it is expected to shift from loose trading to recovery trading, and it is recommended to buy on dips [1]. - Aluminum prices are expected to fluctuate at high levels. Considering the seasonal peak season and pre - National Day stockpiling, it is recommended to buy on dips [1]. - Alumina is in a pattern of oversupply, and it is recommended to wait and see [2]. - Industrial silicon is expected to oscillate in the range of 8700 - 9800, and it is recommended to wait and see [2]. - Lithium carbonate is expected to oscillate between 68,000 - 75,000 yuan, and the key driver lies in supply - side changes, so it is recommended to wait and see [2]. - Polysilicon is expected to oscillate between 50,000 - 56,000 yuan, and it is possible to pay attention to the 11 - 12 reverse spread opportunity [2]. - Tin is expected to oscillate with a slightly stronger trend [2]. - For steel, it is recommended to mainly stay on the sidelines for single - side trading and try the 10/5 reverse spread for rebar [4]. - Iron ore and coking coal are recommended to be on the sidelines [4]. - For soybeans, in the short term, there is a differentiation between domestic and foreign markets. The domestic market is expected to be relatively stronger, presenting a positive spread structure, and the medium - term trend depends on tariff policies [5]. - Corn futures prices are expected to oscillate and decline [5]. - For sugar, it is recommended to go short in the futures market and sell call options [6]. - Cotton is recommended to be on the sidelines, with a range strategy of 13,600 - 14,000 yuan/ton [6]. - Logs are recommended to be on the sidelines [6]. - Palm oil's single - side trading is more difficult, and it is necessary to pay attention to production area output and biodiesel policies later [6]. - Egg prices are expected to oscillate and weaken [6]. - For live pigs, the near - far month spread is expected to continue to weaken, and the reverse spread continues [6]. - For LLDPE, in the short term, it is mainly oscillating, and in the medium - to long - term, it is recommended to short at high prices or do month - spread reverse spreads [7]. - PVC is recommended to go short at high prices [7]. - For PX, the price is expected to be strong, and for PTA, it is recommended to short the processing fee at high prices for the far - month contracts [7]. - Rubber is expected to continue the oscillating market, and it is recommended to wait and see in the short term and remain bullish in the medium term [7]. - Glass is recommended to go long at low prices [9]. - PP is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term, and in the medium - to long - term, it is recommended to short at high prices or do month - spread reverse spreads [9]. - For MEG, short positions should stop profit and exit [9]. - Crude oil is recommended to go short at high prices [9]. - Styrene is expected to oscillate in the short term, and in the medium - to long - term, it is recommended to short at high prices or short the styrene profit [10]. - Soda ash is in a weak supply - demand balance, and it is recommended to wait and see [10]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Precious Metals - Market Performance: Precious metal prices rebounded, and the US is facing the dilemma of a government shutdown again [1]. - Fundamentals: There was a phone call between Chinese and US leaders, and Trump said it was "very productive". H - 1B visa application fees were raised. Gold ETF funds in China continued to flow in, and there were changes in gold and silver inventories in various regions [1]. - Trading Strategy: The de - dollarization logic remains unchanged. In the short term, there are high - level fluctuations, and in the medium term, gold is still bullish. Silver follows gold and is recommended to be on the sidelines [1]. Base Metals Copper - Market Performance: Copper prices oscillated slightly stronger on Friday [1]. - Fundamentals: The supply of copper ore remains tight, and the domestic demand peak season is not obvious, but downstream buyers are active after the price correction. The global visible inventory has slightly accumulated [1]. - Trading Strategy: The market is expected to shift from loose trading to recovery trading, and it is recommended to buy on dips [1]. Aluminum - Market Performance: The closing price of the electrolytic aluminum main contract on Friday was not significantly different from the previous trading day [1]. - Fundamentals: Aluminum smelters maintain high - load production, and downstream consumption is continuously recovering [1]. - Trading Strategy: The macro environment is flat, and the trading focus turns to fundamentals. It is expected that the price will oscillate at high levels, and it is recommended to buy on dips [1]. Alumina - Market Performance: The closing price of the alumina main contract on Friday increased by 0.75% compared with the previous trading day [1]. - Fundamentals: The operating capacity of alumina plants continues to increase, and electrolytic aluminum plants maintain high - load production [1]. - Trading Strategy: The oversupply pattern remains unchanged, and it is recommended to wait and see [2]. Industrial Silicon - Market Performance: The main contract on Friday oscillated and rose slightly [2]. - Fundamentals: The supply side has new furnaces opened, and the demand side is supported by the high operating rate of polysilicon [2]. - Trading Strategy: The policy progress has a long - short game, and it is expected to oscillate in the range of 8700 - 9800. It is recommended to wait and see [2]. Lithium Carbonate - Market Performance: The main contract on Friday increased by 1.5% [2]. - Fundamentals: Production is increasing, and demand is strong. It is expected to continue to reduce inventory in September [2]. - Trading Strategy: The price is expected to oscillate between 68,000 - 75,000 yuan, and the key driver lies in supply - side changes. It is recommended to wait and see [2]. Polysilicon - Market Performance: The main contract on Friday oscillated and decreased slightly [2]. - Fundamentals: The supply is strong and the demand is weak, with inventory accumulation. The photovoltaic installation demand in the third quarter is pessimistic [2]. - Trading Strategy: The market is expected to oscillate weakly this week and between 50,000 - 56,000 yuan next week. It is possible to pay attention to the 11 - 12 reverse spread opportunity [2]. Tin - Market Performance: Tin prices oscillated slightly stronger on Friday [2]. - Fundamentals: After the price decline due to the Fed's interest rate cut, it stabilized near the 60 - day line. The supply of tin ore is tight, and the global visible inventory has decreased significantly [2]. - Trading Strategy: It is treated with an idea of oscillating with a slightly stronger trend [2]. Black Industry Rebar - Market Performance: The main 2601 contract of rebar closed at 3188 yuan/ton, up 42 yuan from the previous night session [4]. - Fundamentals: The overall supply - demand contradiction of building materials is limited, but there is significant structural differentiation. The futures premium of rebar and hot - rolled coil has little marginal change, and the valuation is neutral [4]. - Trading Strategy: It is mainly recommended to stay on the sidelines for single - side trading and try the 10/5 reverse spread for rebar [4]. Iron Ore - Market Performance: The main 2601 contract of iron ore closed at 815.5 yuan/ton, up 14.5 yuan from the previous night session [4]. - Fundamentals: The supply - demand of iron ore is moderately strong. The iron - making output has increased slightly, and the supply is in line with seasonal rules. The long - term premium structure remains, and the valuation is moderately high [4]. - Trading Strategy: It is recommended to be on the sidelines [4]. Coking Coal - Market Performance: The main 2601 contract of coking coal closed at 1239.5 yuan/ton, up 34 yuan from the previous night session [4]. - Fundamentals: The iron - making output has increased, and the steel mill's profit has stabilized marginally. The inventory of coking coal in various links is differentiated, and the futures valuation is high [4]. - Trading Strategy: It is recommended to be on the sidelines [4]. Agricultural Products Soybean Meal - Market Performance: Soybeans on the CBOT market fell on Friday due to no substantial new progress in Sino - US tariff policies [5]. - Fundamentals: The US soybeans are slightly减产, and South America has an expected increase in production. The demand is structurally differentiated, with an increase in US soybean crushing and weak new - crop export demand [5]. - Trading Strategy: In the short term, there is a differentiation between domestic and foreign markets. The domestic market is expected to be relatively stronger, presenting a positive spread structure. The medium - term trend depends on tariff policies [5]. Corn - Market Performance: The 2511 contract of corn oscillated in a narrow range, with the spot price rising in North China and falling in Northeast China [5]. - Fundamentals: The auction of imported grains increases supply, and the new - crop is expected to increase production. The cost has decreased significantly, and the spot price is expected to be weak [5]. - Trading Strategy: The futures price is expected to oscillate and decline [5]. Sugar - Market Performance: The ICE raw sugar 10 contract closed at 16.18 cents/pound, up 2.47% for the week. The Zhengzhou sugar 01 contract closed at 5461 yuan/ton, down 1.50% for the week [6]. - Fundamentals: Internationally, Brazil's sugar production and crushing rate reached new highs, and the raw sugar was under pressure. Domestically, the import volume in August reached a new high, and the market expects high imports in the future [6]. - Trading Strategy: It is recommended to go short in the futures market and sell call options [6]. Cotton - Market Performance: The US cotton futures price fell on Friday, and the US dollar index continued to strengthen [6]. - Fundamentals: Internationally, the cumulative net signing of US cotton exports reached 35.40% of the annual expectation. Pakistan's textile and clothing exports decreased. Domestically, the Zhengzhou cotton futures price oscillated weakly, and the opening rate of spinning mills was basically stable [6]. - Trading Strategy: It is recommended to be on the sidelines for now, with a range strategy of 13,600 - 14,000 yuan/ton [6]. Logs - Market Performance: The 11 - contract of logs closed at 805 yuan/cubic meter, up 0.63% for the week [6]. - Fundamentals: The inventory of major ports across the country has decreased slightly, and the spot price is stable. The supply - demand contradiction is not prominent, and it fluctuates around 800 yuan/cubic meter [6]. - Trading Strategy: It is recommended to be on the sidelines [6]. Palm Oil - Market Performance: Malaysian palm oil continued to fall on Friday, affected by US soybean oil and US biodiesel policy disturbances [6]. - Fundamentals: The production area is in the seasonal production - increasing cycle, and the export of Malaysian palm oil from September 1 - 15 is expected to increase by 2% month - on - month. There is inventory accumulation in the near term and a seasonal production - decreasing expectation in the far term, but there are biodiesel policy disturbances [6]. - Trading Strategy: The single - side trading of palm oil is more difficult in the short term. It is necessary to pay attention to production area output and biodiesel policies later [6]. Eggs - Market Performance: The 2511 contract of eggs oscillated in a narrow range, and the spot price rose and fell unevenly [6]. - Fundamentals: The double - festival stocking is coming to an end, the downstream acceptance of egg prices has decreased, the supply is sufficient, and the inventory has increased. The feed price is low, and the vegetable price is low, which drags down the egg price [6]. - Trading Strategy: The egg price is expected to oscillate and weaken, and the futures price is expected to oscillate weakly [6]. Live Pigs - Market Performance: The 2511 contract of live pigs oscillated in a narrow range, and the spot price rose slightly [6]. - Fundamentals: The supply is abundant, the slaughter of farmers and second - fattening pigs is increasing, and the slaughter volume in September is expected to increase by 3.9%. There are concerns about the seasonal weakening of demand after the double festivals, and the policy may boost market sentiment [6]. - Trading Strategy: The near - far month spread is expected to continue to weaken, and the reverse spread continues [6]. Energy and Chemical Industry LLDPE - Market Performance: The main contract of LLDPE oscillated slightly on Friday. The spot price in North China was 7100 yuan/ton, and the import window was closed [7]. - Fundamentals: The domestic supply is increasing, and the import volume is expected to decrease slightly. The demand in the downstream agricultural film season has improved [7]. - Trading Strategy: In the short term, it is mainly oscillating, and in the medium - to long - term, it is recommended to short at high prices or do month - spread reverse spreads [7]. PVC - Market Performance: The v01 contract of PVC closed at 4963, up 0.2% [7]. - Fundamentals: The PVC market has a weak supply - demand balance, with new device production increasing supply, low downstream demand, and high social inventory [7]. - Trading Strategy: It is recommended to go short at high prices [7]. PTA - Market Performance: The CFR China price of PX was 836 dollars/ton, and the spot price of PTA in East China was 4600 yuan/ton [7]. - Fundamentals: The supply of PX and PTA is increasing, and the polyester load has recovered. PX is in a state of inventory reduction, while PTA has inventory accumulation [7]. - Trading Strategy: The price of PX is expected to be strong, and for PTA, it is recommended to short the processing fee at high prices for the far - month contracts [7]. Rubber - Market Performance: Rubber continued to be weak on Friday, oscillating and falling, and recovered some losses at the end of the session [7]. - Fundamentals: The raw material prices in Thailand have slightly decreased, the downstream enterprise opening rate has fluctuated slightly, and the inventory has increased slightly [7]. - Trading Strategy: It is recommended to wait and see in the short term and remain bullish in the medium term [7]. Glass - Market Performance: The fg01 contract of glass closed at 1226, up 1% [9]. - Fundamentals: The glass market has a weak supply - demand situation, with a decrease in daily melting volume and inventory. The downstream demand has improved seasonally [9]. - Trading Strategy: It is recommended to go long at low prices [9]. PP - Market Performance: The main contract of PP oscillated slightly on Friday. The spot price in East China was 6800 yuan/ton, the import window was closed, and the export window was open [9]. - Fundamentals: The domestic supply is increasing, and the downstream opening rate has increased with the arrival of the peak season [9]. - Trading Strategy: In the short term, it is expected to oscillate weakly, and in the medium - to long - term, it is recommended to short at high prices or do month - spread reverse spreads [9]. MEG - Market Performance: The spot price of MEG in East China was 4378 yuan/ton, and the spot premium was 102 yuan/ton [9]. - Fundamentals: The supply is at a historical high level, and the import supply increase is limited. The polyester load has recovered, and the inventory is at a medium - low level [9]. - Trading Strategy: Short positions should stop profit and exit [9]. Crude Oil - Market Performance: Oil prices rose first and then fell this week. The rise was due to concerns about Russian oil supply risks, and the fall was due to fundamental oversupply [9]. - Fundamentals: The supply is increasing, with OPEC+ planning to increase production, and the demand is weakening as the gasoline consumption peak season ends and refineries enter the maintenance period [9]. - Trading Strategy: It is recommended to go short at high prices and pay attention to shorting opportunities