综合晨报-20250922

Report Investment Ratings - Not provided in the content Core Views - Different sectors in the market show diverse trends. Some sectors like precious metals and certain agricultural products have medium - term positive outlooks but face short - term adjustments, while others such as crude oil and some industrial metals have bearish or uncertain trends in the short to medium term [1][2] - The overall market is influenced by various factors including geopolitical events, supply - demand dynamics, policy changes, and macro - economic conditions Summary by Categories Energy - Crude Oil: Brent futures declined 0.33%. After the peak consumption season, there is a growing supply - demand surplus. The mid - term trend is bearish. Geopolitical factors may cause short - term fluctuations, and a strategy of combining short positions and call options is recommended [1] - Fuel Oil & Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil: High - sulfur fuel oil demand is weakening, and supply is abundant, but Russian attacks support its valuation. Low - sulfur fuel oil has limited supply - demand drivers [21] - Liquefied Petroleum Gas: Supply decreased slightly, and demand increased marginally. The price is supported, and the near - month contract is relatively strong [23] - Urea: Domestic supply is abundant, and the market is in a low - level oscillation. Attention should be paid to the progress of rigid demand [24] - Methanol: Short - term supply - demand gap is expected to narrow. High - inventory pressure exists, and long - term overseas gas restrictions need to be monitored [25] Metals - Precious Metals: Precious metals are in a high - level oscillation. The mid - term trend is positive, but short - term adjustments are possible [2] - Base Metals: - Copper: Copper prices are supported by domestic spot supply - demand, but consumption indicators are under pressure. It is expected to oscillate between 79,000 - 80,500 yuan [3] - Aluminum: Downstream开工率 is rising seasonally, but inventory has not turned around. The resistance level is at the March high [4] - Zinc: The export window is approaching, and domestic inventory is under pressure. The short - term trend is bearish [7] - Lead: The fundamentals are improving, and there is room for upward movement in the short term [8] - Nickel: Affected by the earthquake in Indonesia, the short - term trend is weak [9] - Tin: After price adjustments, inventory is decreasing, and the price is stable. It is recommended to wait and see or use a "buy low, sell high" strategy [10] - Manganese Silicon & Silicon Iron: Both are in a strong - oscillation trend, and prices are likely to rise due to the "anti - involution" background [18][19] - Ferro - alloys: - Coke & Coking Coal: Both have a high probability of strong - oscillation due to sufficient carbon supply, high iron - water production, and pre - holiday restocking [16][17] - Non - Ferrous Metals Related: - Alumina: Supply is in surplus, and the price is supported at around 2,830 yuan [6] - Cast Aluminum Alloy: It follows the decline of Shanghai aluminum but may show stronger resilience [5] Building Materials - Steel: - Rebar & Hot - Rolled Coil: Steel prices are in a strong - oscillation. Demand for rebar is improving, while that for hot - rolled coil is falling. Attention should be paid to environmental protection restrictions [14] - Iron Ore: The short - term trend is high - level oscillation. Supply is at a high level, and demand is supported by high iron - water production [15] - Glass: It has a high - supply and low - demand pattern. The price is expected to fluctuate with macro - sentiment [33] - Soda Ash: Supply is increasing, and the short - term price will fluctuate with macro - sentiment. The long - term trend is bearish due to over - supply [35] Chemicals - Polypropylene, Plastic & Propylene: The supply is increasing, but demand is improving, and the market is slowly recovering [28] - PVC & Caustic Soda: PVC has a loose supply - demand pattern and may decline. Caustic soda shows regional differences and is in an oscillation pattern [29] - PX & PTA: The short - term market is weak, but there is a possibility of downstream restocking after PX's negative factors are released [30] - Ethylene Glycol: It is at the bottom of the range. Supply pressure is expected but currently low [31] - Short - Fiber & Bottle - Chip: Short - fiber is recommended for long - position allocation in the near - month contract. Bottle - chip has limited processing - margin recovery [32] Agricultural Products - Grains & Oils: - Soybeans & Soybean Meal: The short - term trend is oscillatory. Long - term, soybean meal can be cautiously bullish [36] - Soybean Oil & Palm Oil: Short - term, pay attention to trade - relation expectations. Long - term, they can be bought at low prices [37] - Rapeseed Meal & Rapeseed Oil: The domestic supply bottleneck supports prices. Attention should be paid to the opening rate and trade - relation expectations [38] - Corn: After the new grain is on the market, the futures may continue to be weak at the bottom [40] - Livestock & Poultry: - Pigs: The supply pressure is high, and the futures are bearish [41] - Eggs: The seasonal peak is ending. Consider long - positions in the far - month contract [42] - Cash Crops: - Cotton: The short - term trend is bearish. Wait and see after the price break - down [43] - Sugar: The US sugar trend is downward, and the domestic market is in an oscillation [44] - Apples: The short - term price may decline due to lack of supply - side drivers [45] - Timber: The supply - demand situation is improving, but the short - term upward momentum is insufficient [46] Others - Paper Pulp: The supply is relatively loose, and the demand is average. The inventory is high. It is recommended to wait and see or use an oscillation strategy [47] - Stock Index: The A - share market may change from a smooth upward trend to an oscillatory one. Allocate more to technology - growth sectors and consider cyclical and consumer sectors [47] - Treasury Bonds: The futures prices are falling, and the yield curve is likely to steepen [48] - Shipping: The freight index is under pressure in the short term. The impact of the Poland - Belarus border closure on shipping demand needs to be monitored [20]