交银国际每日晨报-20250922

Global Macro - The Federal Reserve's September FOMC meeting resulted in a 25 basis point rate cut to the 4.00%-4.25% range, viewed as a typical preemptive measure rather than a response to severe labor market deterioration [1][2] - The labor market is slowing but remains manageable, with low unemployment reflecting a "weak balance" rather than a robust recovery, making significant rate cuts unlikely to rapidly improve employment [1][2] - The dot plot indicates a division among policymakers, with 10 out of 19 supporting two or more rate cuts this year, while 9 support fewer than two, suggesting cautious expectations for future cuts [2] Market Performance - The Hang Seng Index closed at 26,545, reflecting a 0.09% increase, while the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index rose by 0.17% to 9,472 [4] - Major global indices showed varied performance, with the Dow Jones increasing by 0.37% and the S&P 500 by 0.49%, while the FTSE 100 and CAC 40 experienced slight declines [4] Economic Data Releases - Upcoming U.S. economic data includes the Manufacturing PMI for September, expected at 53.00, and Durable Goods Orders for August, anticipated to decline by 2.80% year-on-year [6] - The second quarter GDP growth is projected at 3.30%, a significant recovery from the previous -0.50% [6] Sector Insights - The consumer sector is expected to see moderate recovery with multiple opportunities in the second half of 2025, as indicated in a recent deep dive report [6] - The renewable energy sector continues to face uncertainties but remains attractive for investment, particularly in dividend stability [6] - The automotive industry is accelerating the penetration of hybrid technologies, with a focus on autonomous driving and robotics [6]