碳酸锂日评：低位震荡-20250922

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Report's Core View - On September 19, the main contract of lithium carbonate futures fluctuated upward. The spot market trading was fair, and the basis changed from premium to discount. Considering cost, spodumene concentrate prices rose, as did mica prices. On the supply side, lithium carbonate production increased last week, with output from different raw materials rising. In terms of downstream demand, lithium iron phosphate production and ternary material production increased last week. In September, lithium cobaltate and lithium phosphate production schedules increased, and power battery production was basically flat last week. In terms of terminal demand, the year - on - year growth rate of new energy vehicle production slowed in August, 3C shipments were average, and energy - storage battery production increased in September. In terms of inventory, registered warehouse receipts increased by 130 tons to 39484 tons, social inventory decreased, with smelters and others destocking, and downstream restocking. Overall, the current supply and demand are both strong, upstream inventory pressure is not large, and as downstream lithium mine resumption is actively advancing, the expectation of supply contraction weakens. It is expected that lithium carbonate prices will fluctuate at a low level. One should be vigilant about the downstream restocking node and the deadline for Jiangxi mine - end reserve reports [1]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Lithium Carbonate Futures Market - Prices: On September 19, the closing prices of the near - month contract, consecutive - one contract, consecutive - two contract, and consecutive - three contract were 73760 yuan/ton, 73960 yuan/ton, 74040 yuan/ton, and 73960 yuan/ton respectively, with changes of 1140 yuan/ton, 1100 yuan/ton, 1100 yuan/ton, and 1100 yuan/ton compared to the previous day [1]. - Volume and Open Interest: The trading volume of lithium carbonate futures was 370359 hands (- 131910), and the open interest was 281264 hands (- 147) [1]. - Spreads: The spread between the near - month and consecutive - one contracts was 160 yuan/ton, the spread between consecutive - one and consecutive - two contracts was - 20 yuan/ton, and the spread between consecutive - two and consecutive - three contracts was 0 yuan/ton [1]. - Basis: The basis (SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate average price - lithium carbonate active contract closing price) was 1290 yuan/ton [1]. Lithium Ore Prices - Spodumene Concentrate: The average price of spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF China) was 842 US dollars/ton [1]. - Lithium Mica: The average price of lithium mica (Li2O: 1.5% - 2.0%) was 1150 yuan/ton, and the average price of lithium mica (Li2O: 2.0% - 2.5%) was 1880 yuan/ton [1]. - Phospho - lithium - aluminum Stone: The average price of phospho - lithium - aluminum stone (Li2O: 6% - 7%) was 5770 yuan/ton, and the average price of phospho - lithium - aluminum stone (Li2O: 7% - 8%) was 7215 yuan/ton [1]. Lithium Salt Prices - Lithium Carbonate: The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate (99.5%, domestic) was 73500 yuan/ton, and the average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate (99.2%, domestic) was 71250 yuan/ton [1]. - Lithium Hydroxide: The average price of battery - grade lithium hydroxide (56.5%, CIF China, Japan, and South Korea) was 9.3 US dollars/kg, the average price of battery - grade lithium hydroxide (56.5%, coarse - particle, domestic) was 74050 yuan/ton, and the average price of battery - grade lithium hydroxide (56.5%, micron - powder type, domestic) was 78970 yuan/ton [1]. Other Battery Material Prices - Lithium Iron Phosphate: The average price of power - type lithium iron phosphate was 33630 yuan/ton, the average price of mid - to high - end energy - storage type lithium iron phosphate was 32235 yuan/ton, and the average price of low - end energy - storage type lithium iron phosphate was 29430 yuan/ton [1]. - Lithium Cobaltate: The average price of lithium cobaltate (60%, 4.35V, domestic) was 236500 yuan/ton [1]. - Electrolyte: The average price of electrolyte for ternary power batteries was 22250 yuan/ton, the average price of electrolyte for lithium iron phosphate batteries was 18250 yuan/ton, and the average price of electrolyte for lithium cobaltate batteries was 0 yuan/ton [1]. Inventory - Registered Warehouse Receipts: The registered warehouse receipts of lithium carbonate were 39484 tons (+ 130) [1]. - SMM Lithium Carbonate Inventory: The total SMM lithium carbonate inventory was 137531 tons, with smelters and others destocking and downstream restocking [1]. News and Information - Argentina exported 8099.95 tons of lithium carbonate in August, with 6528 tons exported to China [1]. - The president of the China Non - Ferrous Metals Industry Association stated that many domestic alumina enterprises' projects are accelerating, and lithium battery raw material enterprises should rationally judge the industry scale and supply - demand relationship [1]. Investment Strategy - It is recommended to wait and see [1].