基本面不同，油脂震荡整理

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the report industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - This week, the futures prices of edible oils fluctuated and consolidated. The overall futures prices of edible oils are likely to continue fluctuating and consolidating. [5][9][31] - The demand for palm oil in the producing areas is developing favorably. However, if Sino - US soybean trade resumes, the improved supply outlook may continue to put pressure on the edible oil market. Currently, domestic soybean oil is still in the process of inventory accumulation, while rapeseed oil is gradually reducing inventory, which supports its price. [9][31] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Abstract - This week, the futures price of soybean oil Y2601 rose 0.07% to close at 8,328 yuan/ton, palm oil P2601 rose 0.22% to close at 9,316 yuan/ton, and rapeseed oil OI2601 rose 2.14% to close at 10,068 yuan/ton. [5] Important Information - In the palm oil sector, recent heavy rainfall in Malaysia has caused severe floods, especially in Sabah. Sabah's palm oil production accounts for about 1/5 of Malaysia's total, and excessive rain may reduce palm oil production by 1 - 2 percentage points, with palm oil falling 0.47%. [6] - In the soybean oil sector, this year's US soybean exports to China are only about 1/3 of the total exports, a 85% drop in the second - quarter export decline rate. The US agricultural trade deficit in the first seven months reached a record 33.6 billion US dollars, and US soybeans fell 1.84% this week. [7] Spot Analysis - As of September 18, 2025, the spot price of Grade 4 soybean oil in Zhangjiagang was 8,510 yuan/ton, down 150 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, at an average level compared to the past 5 years. [10] - The spot price of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong was 9,270 yuan/ton, down 180 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, at a relatively high level compared to the past 5 years. [11] - The spot price of Grade 4 rapeseed oil in Jiangsu was 10,210 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, at an average level compared to the past 5 years. [13] Other Data - As of September 12, 2025, the national soybean oil inventory increased by 12,000 tons to 1.455 million tons. On September 17, 2025, the national commercial palm oil inventory increased by 20,000 tons to 665,000 tons. [17] - As of September 18, 2025, the port's imported soybean inventory was 6,622,320 tons. [20] - As of September 18, 2025, the basis of Grade 4 soybean oil in Zhangjiagang was 226 yuan/ton, down 68 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, at a relatively low level compared to the past 5 years. [21] - The basis of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong was - 34 yuan/ton, down 60 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, at a relatively low level compared to the past 5 years. [22] - The basis of rapeseed oil in Jiangsu was 226 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, at a relatively low level compared to the past 5 years. [24] Comprehensive Analysis - The futures prices of edible oils fluctuated and consolidated this week. The demand for palm oil in the producing areas is improving, while the soybean oil market has been giving back its previous premium. If Sino - US soybean trade resumes, it may put pressure on the edible oil market. Rapeseed oil is gradually reducing inventory, which supports its price. [30][31]