美联储降息落地，沪铜或震荡运行

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating The report does not provide an investment rating for the industry. 2. Core View - Copper prices are expected to show a mainly oscillating trend, with reduced price fluctuations and limited arbitrage opportunities. It is recommended to mainly adopt a wait - and - see approach for option contracts [5][53]. 3. Summary by Section 3.1行情复盘 - Last week, the main contract CU2510 of Shanghai copper futures showed a mainly oscillating and weakening market, with prices ranging from around 79,505 yuan/ton to a maximum of about 81,530 yuan/ton [9]. - Last week, LME copper futures prices showed an oscillating and weakening trend, with contract prices running around 9,919 - 10,192 US dollars/ton [13]. 3.2宏观面 - From January to August 2025, the national fixed - asset investment (excluding rural households) was 32,611.1 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 0.5%. In August, the added value of industrial enterprises above the designated size actually increased by 5.2% year - on - year. From January to August, the added value of industrial enterprises above the designated size increased by 6.2% year - on - year [4][16][52]. - The Federal Reserve announced a 25 - basis - point cut in the federal funds rate target range to between 4.00% and 4.25%. According to CME data, the probability of a 25 - bp rate cut by the Fed in October is 87.7%, and the probability in December is 80.9%. The expected number of rate cuts within the year is 2 [4][52]. 3.3现货分析 - As of September 19, 2025, the average price of Shanghai Wumaotong was 79,970 yuan/ton, and the average price of 1 electrolytic copper in the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Metals Market was 80,050 yuan/ton, a decrease of 40 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The spot prices in Shanghai, Guangdong, Chongqing, and Tianjin were 80,000 yuan/ton, 79,970 yuan/ton, 80,130 yuan/ton, and 80,080 yuan/ton respectively [21]. - As of September 19, 2025, the premium and discount of electrolytic copper remained at around a premium of 50 yuan/ton, an increase of 20 yuan/ton from the previous trading day [21]. 3.4供需情况 - As of August 2025, the monthly refined copper output was 1.301 million tons, an increase of 31,000 tons from the previous month and a year - on - year increase of 14.8%. As of September 12, 2025, the rough smelting fee of Chinese copper smelters was - 41.42 US dollars/kiloton, and the refining fee was - 4.16 cents/pound [28]. - As of August 2025, the monthly copper product output was 2.2219 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 9.8%. As of August 2025, the monthly automobile output in China was 2.7524 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 10.5% [34]. 3.5库存情况 - As of September 19, 2025, the cathode copper inventory on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 105,814 tons, an increase of 11,760 tons from the previous week. As of September 18, 2025, the LME copper inventory was 148,875 tons, a decrease of 900 tons from the previous trading day, and the proportion of cancelled warrants was 9.67%. As of September 18, 2025, the COMEX copper inventory was 315,206 tons, an increase of 2,364 tons from the previous trading day [40]. - As of September 18, 2025, the inventory in the Shanghai Free Trade Zone was 76,400 tons, the inventory in the Guangdong region was 21,000 tons, and the inventory in the Wuxi region was 29,400 tons. The inventory in the Shanghai Free Trade Zone remained unchanged from the previous week [40]. 3.6后市展望 - Copper prices are expected to show a mainly oscillating trend. Price fluctuations will be reduced, and arbitrage opportunities are limited. It is recommended to mainly adopt a wait - and - see approach for option contracts [5][53].