铁矿周报：铁矿或延续震荡偏强走势-20250922

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating of the iron ore industry is ★★ [6] Core Viewpoints of the Report - Last week, the i2601 contract rose 1.13%. The Fed's interest rate cut has been confirmed, and high - level Sino - US talks have increased the risk appetite of the financial market. In September, the black metal industry enters the peak season, downstream demand recovery may support the stabilization and rebound of black metals. The hot metal production is still at a medium - high level, and steel mills have a demand for raw material replenishment before the festival, which strongly supports the iron ore price. The iron ore price may generally continue the volatile and upward trend [5][6][31] Summary by Directory 1. Disk Analysis - This part includes futures price (including futures seat net position analysis and basis), spread analysis, and position analysis, with data from Wind Information and Hualong Futures Investment Consulting Department [7][10][11] 2. Important Market Information - On September 18, the Iron Ore Working Committee of the China Iron and Steel Association held an iron ore working meeting in Beijing to analyze the current iron ore market situation, study recent key tasks, and arrange the upcoming launch of the import iron ore port spot price index by the Beijing Iron Ore Trading Center. Representatives from domestic steel producers and iron ore trading companies attended the meeting [15] 3. Supply - side Situation - As of August 2025, the import volume of iron ore and concentrates was 10,522 million tons, an increase of 60 million tons from the previous month, and the import average price was $92.72 per ton, an increase of $1.31 per ton from the previous month. Australia's iron ore shipment volume was 6,082.9 million tons, a decrease of 51.4 million tons from the previous month, and Brazil's was 3,235.7 million tons, an increase of 535 million tons from the first half of the month [18][21] 4. Demand - side Situation - This part involves the daily average hot metal production of 247 steel mills, Tangshan blast furnace operating rate, and Shanghai terminal wire and bar procurement volume, with data from Wind Information and Hualong Futures Investment Consulting Department [22][23][25] 5. Fundamental Analysis - Last week, the scale of maintenance of construction steel mills increased. 15 production lines were under maintenance (10 more than last week), and 10 were restarted (2 more than last week). The production affected by maintenance was 29.96 million tons last week and is expected to be 25.48 million tons next week. The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 83.98%, a month - on - month increase of 0.15 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 5.75%; the steel mill profitability rate was 58.87%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.30% and a year - on - year increase of 48.91%; the daily average hot metal production was 241.02 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.47 million tons and a year - on - year increase of 17.19 million tons. The Simandou iron ore project in Guinea has entered a decisive stage, with the first - batch mining operations of Blocks 1 and 2 officially launched, and the annual output is planned to reach 60 million tons. The total inventory of imported iron ore at 45 ports was 13,801.08 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 48.39 million tons; the daily average port clearance volume was 339.17 million tons, an increase of 7.89 million tons [28][29][30] 6. Market Outlook - From a macro perspective, the Fed's interest rate cut and high - level Sino - US talks have increased market risk appetite. From an industrial perspective, in September, the black metal industry enters the peak season, downstream demand recovery may support the stabilization and rebound of black metals, and the high - level hot metal production and pre - festival raw material replenishment demand of steel mills strongly support the iron ore price. The iron ore price may generally continue the volatile and upward trend [6][31] 7. Operation Strategy - For unilateral trading, it is recommended to take a bullish view on dips; for arbitrage, it is advisable to wait and see; for options, consider selling deep out - of - the - money put options [6][32]