尿素早评：关注逢低做多机会-20250922

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - Not provided in the report [1] 2. Core View - The report recommends paying attention to the opportunity of buying the 01 contract on dips. Currently, urea has fallen to a certain cost - effective level, with upstream profits at a relatively low level and the valuation being relatively cheap. There are two possible upward drivers for urea prices in the future: on the supply side, there is an expectation of old - device renewal and transformation, as the proportion of urea devices over 20 years old is about 20% and the current comprehensive operating rate is close to 80% with limited idle capacity; on the demand side, there is an expectation of improved exports, and considering the easing of Sino - Indian relations, urea exports from September to October are quite promising. Therefore, the space for further decline of urea is relatively limited [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Urea Futures Price (Closing Price) - UR01: On September 19, it was 1661.00 yuan/ton, down 9.00 yuan or 0.54% from September 18 [1] - UR05: On September 19, it was 1722.00 yuan/ton, down 3.00 yuan or 0.17% from September 18 [1] - UR09: On September 19, it was 1744.00 yuan/ton, down 1.00 yuan or 0.06% from September 18 [1] Domestic Spot Price (Small - Granule) - Shandong: Remained at 1640.00 yuan/ton from September 18 to 19 [1] - Shanxi: On September 19, it was 1510.00 yuan/ton, down 10.00 yuan or 0.66% from September 18 [1] - Henan: On September 19, it was 1640.00 yuan/ton, down 10.00 yuan or 0.61% from September 18 [1] - Hebei: Remained at 1680.00 yuan/ton from September 18 to 19 [1] - Northeast: Remained at 1660.00 yuan/ton from September 18 to 19 [1] - Jiangsu: Remained at 1650.00 yuan/ton from September 18 to 19 [1] Basis and Spread - Shandong Spot - UR: On September 19, it was - 82.00 yuan/ton, up 3.00 yuan from September 18 [1] - 01 - 05 Spread: On September 19, it was - 61.00 yuan/ton, down 6.00 yuan from September 18 [1] Upstream Cost - Anthracite Price: In Henan, it remained at 1000.00 yuan/ton from September 18 to 19; in Shanxi, it remained at 880.00 yuan/ton; in Shandong, it remained at 2930.00 yuan/ton [1] Downstream Price - Compound Fertilizer (45%S) Price in Henan: Remained at 2520.00 yuan/ton from September 18 to 19 [1] - Melamine Price: In Shandong, it remained at 5083.00 yuan/ton from September 18 to 19; in Jiangsu, it remained at 5200.00 yuan/ton [1] Important Information - On the previous trading day, the opening price of the main urea futures contract 2601 was 1672 yuan/ton, the highest price was 1676 yuan/ton, the lowest price was 1656 yuan/ton, the closing price was 1661 yuan/ton, and the settlement price was 1666 yuan/ton [1] Trading Strategy - Pay attention to the opportunity of buying the 01 contract on dips [1]