现货冲高回落，产能高压限制反弹空间

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - This year, the egg market shows a "peak season without prosperity" trend, with high egg - laying hen inventory and slow capacity reduction. After the Mid - Autumn and National Day holiday stocking ends, the market demand will cool down, and the futures market may show weak fluctuations [8][53] - For trading strategies, it is recommended to take a short - selling approach on rallies for single - side trading and continue the 11 - 01 reverse arbitrage strategy, while remaining on the sidelines for options trading [8][54] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Market Review 3.1.1. Futures Price - Last week, the egg futures market showed range - bound fluctuations. As of last Friday's close, the main JD2511 contract was at 3,112 yuan per 500 kilograms, down 0.22%. The trading volume was 389,049 lots, and the open interest was 398,055 lots [5][12] 3.1.2. Spot Price - The average egg price in the main production areas last week was 3.69 yuan per catty, a week - on - week increase of 7.89%. The average price in the main sales areas was 3.72 yuan per catty, a week - on - week increase of 9.73%. However, prices in both areas declined towards the weekend [7][17] 3.1.3. Chicken Chick Price - The average price of commercial chicken chicks in key national areas last week was 2.98 yuan per chick, down 0.33% week - on - week. The utilization rate of hatching eggs was about 50%. Due to farmers' weak replenishment willingness, the chicken chick market was oversupplied [21] 3.1.4. Old Hen Price - The average price of old hens in representative markets last week was 4.66 yuan per catty, up 0.22% week - on - week. The price first rose and then fell [24] 3.2. Fundamental Analysis 3.2.1. Supply Side - In August, the inventory of laying hens in the country was about 1.317 billion, with a month - on - month increase of 1.93% and a year - on - year increase of 8.93%. It is expected that the inventory in September will decline slightly after reaching a high for the year [27] - The shipping volume in the main production areas last week was 7,491.01 tons, a week - on - week increase of 5.86% and a year - on - year decrease of 2.52%. The shipping pace slowed down towards the weekend [31] - The total slaughter volume of old hens in sample points last week was 576,200, a week - on - week increase of 2.05%. The average slaughter age was 499 days, unchanged from the previous week [37] 3.2.2. Demand Side - In the Beijing market, the arrival volume was 89 trucks, a week - on - week decrease of 8.25%. In the Guangdong market, the arrival volume was 492 trucks, a week - on - week increase of 23.31%. The market shifted from tight to loose [40] - The total slaughter volume of old hens in 22 designated slaughter enterprises last week was 3.3384 million, a week - on - week decrease of 2.34%. Due to farmers' reluctance to slaughter and weak terminal demand, the slaughter volume decreased [42][44] 3.2.3. Inventory Situation - As of last Friday, the production - link inventory was 0.61 days, a 22% increase from the previous day. The circulation - link inventory was 0.97 days, unchanged from the previous day [47] 3.2.4. Laying Hen Breeding Cost and Profit - Last week, the laying hen breeding cost was 3.52 yuan per catty, a week - on - week decrease of 0.28%. The breeding profit was 0.17 yuan per catty, a week - on - week increase of 254.55%. The decline in feed prices led to a decrease in breeding costs, while the increase in egg prices improved profits [51]