Report Industry Investment Ratings - Macrofinance: Index futures are recommended for long - term bullish and buying on dips; Treasury bonds are recommended to stay on the sidelines [1][5] - Black Building Materials: Coking coal and rebar are recommended for range trading; Glass is recommended for buying on dips [1][7][8] - Non - ferrous Metals: Copper is recommended for sidelines or buying on dips with short - term trading; Aluminum is recommended for buying on dips after pullbacks; Nickel is recommended for sidelines or shorting on rallies; Tin, gold, and silver are recommended for range trading [1][10][11][15][16][18] - Energy and Chemicals: PVC, caustic soda, styrene, rubber, urea, methanol, and polyolefins are expected to oscillate; Soda ash is recommended for shorting the 01 contract and going long on the 05 contract [1][19][21][23][25][26][28][29][31] - Cotton Textile Industry Chain: Cotton and cotton yarn are expected to oscillate; PTA is expected to oscillate within the range of 4600 - 4950; Apples are expected to oscillate strongly; Jujubes are expected to oscillate weakly [1][34][35][37] - Agriculture and Animal Husbandry: Pigs and eggs are recommended for shorting on rallies; Corn is expected to oscillate widely; Soybean meal is expected to oscillate weakly; Oils are expected to oscillate strongly after a high - level correction [1][38][40][41][42][43] Core Viewpoints The report provides trading strategies for various futures products based on their market trends, supply - demand relationships, and macro - economic factors. It believes that the macro - financial market has long - term potential, while different sectors in the commodity market have different trends. For example, some products are in a range - bound state, some are affected by seasonal factors, and some are influenced by policy and international trade factors [1][5][7][11][34][38] Summaries by Categories Macrofinance - Index Futures: The market is in a short - term shock, but in the medium - term, it is expected to benefit from the loose US dollar liquidity environment. It is recommended to buy on dips [5] - Treasury Bonds: The market adjusted on Friday, and the technical repair may be over. It is recommended to stay on the sidelines and focus on the results of the China - US presidential call [5] Black Building Materials - Coking Coal: Multiple factors have boosted market sentiment, with coal prices rising across the board [7] - Rebar: The short - term pattern of weak industry and strong macro remains. It is recommended to buy on dips, focusing on the 3100 - 3250 range for the RB2601 contract [7] - Glass: The fundamentals are stable, and it is affected by coal news. It is recommended to buy on dips, focusing on the 1130 - 1160 support [8] Non - ferrous Metals - Copper: It is expected to remain in high - level shock before the holiday, and it is recommended to trade cautiously on the long side [11] - Aluminum: The price is under pressure from alumina, but the demand is in the peak season. It is recommended to buy on dips and consider the long AD short AL arbitrage strategy [11] - Nickel: The supply - demand side changes little, and it is recommended to short moderately on rallies [15] - Tin: The supply is tight, and the demand is recovering. It is recommended for range trading, with the reference range of 265,000 - 280,000 yuan/ton for the Shanghai Tin 10 contract [16] - Silver and Gold: They are expected to oscillate, and it is recommended for range trading, with reference ranges of 9800 - 10500 for the Shanghai Silver 12 contract and 820 - 855 for the Shanghai Gold 12 contract [16][18] Energy and Chemicals - PVC: The supply - demand is weak, and it is expected to oscillate in the short term, with the 01 contract focusing on the 4850 - 5050 range [20] - Caustic Soda: Considering pre - holiday restocking and alumina production expectations, it is expected to oscillate, with the 01 contract focusing on the 2550 - 2650 range [22] - Styrene: The supply - demand is weak, and it is expected to oscillate, focusing on the 6900 - 7200 range [25] - Rubber: The supply is increasing, and the demand is weak. It is expected to maintain a narrow - range arrangement, focusing on the 15600 support [25] - Urea: The supply is slightly lower than last year, and the demand is weak. It is recommended to focus on the 1630 - 1650 support for the 01 contract and the positive arbitrage opportunity for the 1 - 5 spread [26] - Methanol: The supply is recovering, and the demand is stable. It is expected to oscillate weakly, with the 01 contract focusing on the 2330 - 2450 range [28] - Polyolefins: The downstream demand is improving, and the supply pressure is relieved. It is expected to oscillate, with the L2601 contract focusing on the 7200 - 7500 range and the PP2601 contract focusing on the 6900 - 7200 range [30] - Soda Ash: It is recommended to short the 01 contract and go long on the 05 contract due to the expected supply surplus [33] Cotton Textile Industry Chain - Cotton and Cotton Yarn: The global supply - demand situation is improving, but the new cotton production may increase. It is recommended to prepare for hedging [34] - PTA: The cost and supply - demand are in a tug - of - war. It is expected to oscillate within the 4600 - 4950 range [34] - Apples: Affected by weather and market conditions, the price is expected to be strong [35] - Jujubes: The consumption is weak, and the price is expected to oscillate weakly [37] Agriculture and Animal Husbandry - Pigs: The supply exceeds demand, and the price is under pressure. It is recommended to short on rallies and focus on the long 05, 07 short 03 arbitrage [38] - Eggs: The short - term supply pressure is large, and the long - term growth rate may slow down. It is recommended to short lightly on rallies for the near - term contracts and be cautious about shorting for the 12 and 01 contracts [40] - Corn: It is in the period of new and old crop connection, and the price is under seasonal pressure. It is recommended to short on rallies for the 11 contract and focus on the 1 - 5 reverse arbitrage [41] - Soybean Meal: The supply is sufficient in September - October, and the price is under pressure, but it is supported by cost. It is recommended to focus on the 2980 support for the M2601 contract [42] - Oils: The domestic oils have a high - level correction, but the decline is limited. It is recommended to buy on dips and focus on some arbitrage opportunities [43]
期货市场交易指引2025年09月22日-20250922
Chang Jiang Qi Huo·2025-09-22 02:58