华宝期货晨报成材-20250922

Group 1: Report's Overall Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is mentioned in the report Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The prices of finished steel products showed a slight differentiation last week, with rebar performing slightly better than hot-rolled coils. Steel prices rebounded last week, and the main trading logic remains the industry's fundamentals. Currently, the weak situation of downstream demand has not improved, and prices are moving in a low position [1][2] - The raw material market is expected to operate at a low level [2] Group 3: Summary of Each Section (Based on the General Logic) Steel Production Capacity Utilization - The blast furnace ironmaking capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills was 90.35% last week, a week-on-week increase of 0.17 percentage points and a year-on-year increase of 6.29 percentage points. The daily average hot metal output was 2.4102 million tons, a week-on-week increase of 4,700 tons and a year-on-year increase of 171,900 tons [2] - The average capacity utilization rate of 90 independent electric arc furnace steel mills was 54.35%, a week-on-week decrease of 0.91 percentage points and a year-on-year increase of 14.68 percentage points. The average operating rate was 70.63%, a week-on-week decrease of 1.29 percentage points and a year-on-year increase of 9.59 percentage points [2] Steel Market Conditions - Finished steel products rebounded last week, and steel prices closed positively on the weekly line driven by raw materials. The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points last week, in line with market expectations, and the macro-driving force weakened [2] - Rebar and hot-rolled coils showed differentiation last week. Rebar production and inventory decreased slightly, and apparent demand increased; hot-rolled coil production and inventory increased slightly, and performance declined, resulting in rebar being stronger than hot-rolled coils in terms of price trends [2] Raw Material Market - The raw material market is expected to operate at a low level [2] Factors to Watch - Macro policies and downstream demand conditions should be focused on in the later stage [3]