Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The overall atmosphere in the commodity market was positive last Friday, with the prices of finished steel products continuing to strengthen in a volatile manner. In the short term, market sentiment has cooled slightly; in the long term, the global liquidity easing is expected to drive the recovery of the manufacturing industry, indirectly boosting steel demand. However, if demand cannot be effectively restored, steel prices still face the risk of decline. The raw material segment remains relatively strong, and attention should be paid to the policy trends of the Fourth Plenary Session [2]. - The price of iron ore is expected to fluctuate with an upward bias. The latest overseas iron ore shipments have rebounded to a high level, and the recent arrival volume has slightly declined. The daily average hot metal production has increased, and the steel mill profit rate has been decreasing for several weeks. The port inventory has slightly decreased, while the steel mill's imported ore inventory has significantly increased. In the short term, the hot metal production remains strong, and the iron ore price is supported before steel mills reduce production [5]. - The black sector may experience a short - term downward correction, especially after the National Day holiday. However, considering the subsequent overseas fiscal and monetary easing and the sufficient domestic fiscal policy space, the black sector may gradually become more cost - effective for long - term allocation, with the key time point possibly around the "Fourth Plenary Session" in mid - October [10]. - The price of industrial silicon is expected to be strong in the short term under the influence of capital sentiment, and attention should be paid to the improvement of supply and demand and policy changes in the future. The price of polysilicon is expected to continue to fluctuate, with large intraday price swings, and attention should be paid to position and risk control [14][16]. - The price of glass may form support at a low level as the "Golden September and Silver October" approach, and it is advisable to take a small long position at low prices. The price of soda ash remains in a volatile market, and a cautious attitude is recommended [19][21]. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel Products Market Information - The closing price of the rebar主力合约 was 3172 yuan/ton, up 25 yuan/ton (0.794%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts were 256,453 tons, a net increase of 6,931 tons. The position of the主力合约 was 1.97051 million lots, a net decrease of 29,174 lots. In the spot market, the aggregated price of rebar in Tianjin was 3210 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day; in Shanghai, it was 3260 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton [1]. - The closing price of the hot - rolled coil主力合约 was 3374 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton (0.596%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts were 37,228 tons, a net decrease of 7,721 tons. The position of the主力合约 was 1.413153 million lots, a net increase of 829 lots. In the spot market, the aggregated price of hot - rolled coils in Lecong was 3380 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton; in Shanghai, it was 3420 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton [1]. Strategy Viewpoints - The overall atmosphere in the commodity market was positive last Friday, with the prices of finished steel products continuing to strengthen in a volatile manner. The Fed's monetary policy stance was more cautious than expected, and preventive interest rate cuts have begun. In the short term, market sentiment has cooled slightly; in the long term, global liquidity easing is expected to drive the recovery of the manufacturing industry, indirectly boosting steel demand. Last week, steel exports declined slightly, remaining in a weak and volatile state. Fundamentally, rebar production has declined, apparent demand has slightly increased, and inventory pressure has marginally eased; hot - rolled coil production has increased, apparent demand is neutral, and inventory has slightly accumulated. Currently, the demand for both rebar and hot - rolled coils is weak, and the peak - season demand is not strong. Steel mill profits are gradually narrowing, and if demand cannot be effectively restored, steel prices still face the risk of decline. The raw material segment remains relatively strong, and attention should be paid to the policy trends of the Fourth Plenary Session [2]. Iron Ore Market Information - Last Friday, the main iron ore contract (I2601) closed at 807.50 yuan/ton, up 0.94% (+7.50), with a position change of +40,992 lots to 574,500 lots. The weighted position of iron ore was 889,200 lots. The spot price of PB fines at Qingdao Port was 799 yuan/wet ton, with a basis of 42.46 yuan/ton and a basis rate of 5.00% [4]. Strategy Viewpoints - In terms of supply, the latest overseas iron ore shipments have rebounded to a high level in the same period. Australia's shipments have increased month - on - month, and Brazil's shipments have rebounded significantly, returning above the same - period level in previous years. Shipments from non - mainstream countries have also increased. The recent arrival volume has slightly declined. In terms of demand, the latest daily average hot metal production according to the Steel Union was 2.4102 million tons, up 0.47 million tons. There were both blast furnace overhauls and restarts. The profitability of steel mills has been declining for several weeks. In terms of inventory, port inventory has slightly decreased, while the steel mill's imported ore inventory has significantly increased. Before the National Day, part of the inventory may continue to be transferred to the mills. The apparent demand for the five major steel products has continued to increase, and the inventory decline rate has slowed. The apparent demand for rebar has increased, and inventory has slightly decreased. Currently, the pressure from downstream on the raw material segment remains to be observed. Fundamentally, the hot metal production remains strong in the short term, and the iron ore price is supported before steel mills reduce production. After the China - US leaders' phone call, market sentiment has been relatively positive, which also has a positive impact on the iron ore price. Overall, the iron ore price is expected to fluctuate with an upward bias, and attention should be paid to the recovery of downstream demand and the inventory reduction speed [5]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon Market Information - On September 19, the main manganese silicon contract (SM601) remained volatile, closing down 0.10% at 5964 yuan/ton. In the spot market, the price of 6517 manganese silicon in Tianjin was 5820 yuan/ton, with a basis of 46 yuan/ton. The main ferrosilicon contract (SF511) closed down 0.35% at 5736 yuan/ton. In the spot market, the price of 72 ferrosilicon in Tianjin was 5800 yuan/ton, with a basis of 64 yuan/ton. From September 15 - 19, the manganese silicon futures price fluctuated upwards, with a weekly increase of 132 yuan/ton or +2.27%. In the daily chart, the price reached around 6000 yuan/ton and then retreated, continuing to fluctuate upwards along the hourly upward trend but remaining within the volatile range. Attention should be paid to the resistance around 6000 yuan/ton and the right - hand downward trend line. The ferrosilicon futures price also fluctuated upwards, with a weekly increase of 150 yuan/ton or +2.69%. In the daily chart, it also fluctuated upwards along the hourly upward trend but remained within the volatile range, and attention should be paid to the resistance around 5800 yuan/ton [8]. Strategy Viewpoints - In September, the Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points as expected, and the dot - plot shows that there may be two more interest rate cuts this year, indicating that the US has officially entered an interest rate cut cycle. Although the interest rate cut was as expected, Powell's hawkish stance led to a significant decline in non - ferrous metal prices, and the Wenhua Commodity Index returned to a volatile state, while the black sector continued to strengthen. On the one hand, overseas interest rate cuts have created room for domestic policies, strengthening market expectations of future economic stimulus; on the other hand, the "anti - involution" sentiment has resurfaced, driving positive performance in the raw material segments of coking coal and ferroalloys. However, as the peak season approaches, the actual demand is still relatively weak, especially in the building materials sector, where demand has not shown peak - season characteristics. Steel mills are still maintaining high - intensity production driven by profits, and the hot metal production remains above 2.4 million tons. High supply and relatively weak demand have led to a reverse - seasonal accumulation of steel inventory, putting pressure on prices in reality. In the short term, especially after the National Day holiday, the black sector may experience a downward correction. However, considering the subsequent overseas fiscal and monetary easing and the sufficient domestic fiscal policy space, the black sector may gradually become more cost - effective for long - term allocation, with the key time point possibly around the "Fourth Plenary Session" in mid - October. For manganese silicon, its fundamentals are still not ideal due to high supply and weak demand in the building materials sector. However, the manganese ore inventory at ports has been at a low level recently, and the manganese ore price has been relatively strong. If the black sector strengthens in the future, attention should be paid to possible disturbances in the manganese ore segment, which may drive the manganese silicon market. Otherwise, manganese silicon is likely to follow the black - sector market. For ferrosilicon, there are no obvious contradictions in its supply - demand fundamentals, and it is also likely to follow the black - sector market, with relatively low trading cost - effectiveness [9][10]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon Industrial Silicon - Market Information: Last Friday, the main industrial silicon contract (SI2511) closed at 9305 yuan/ton, up 4.49% (+400). The weighted position changed by +37,604 lots to 553,772 lots. In the spot market, the price of unoxygenated 553 industrial silicon in East China was 9100 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, with a basis of - 205 yuan/ton; the price of 421 was 9600 yuan/ton, unchanged, with a basis of - 505 yuan/ton [12]. - Strategy Viewpoints: Last Friday, the price of industrial silicon suddenly rose rapidly at the end of the session. In the short term, the price has shown a pulsed increase and is relatively unstable, so risk control is necessary. Fundamentally, there have been no significant changes in the supply and demand of industrial silicon. Production has slowed down after several weeks of growth but remains at a relatively high level compared to the same period last year. Downstream, the current operating rate of polysilicon is relatively high, and it is uncertain whether high - operating - rate enterprises will start to reduce production. In the short term, it can still support the demand for industrial silicon. The production of organic silicon DMC continues to be at a high level. The visible inventory of industrial silicon is at a high level, and the marginal reduction is limited. Compared with downstream polysilicon, the relative valuation of industrial silicon is low, and the polysilicon futures price has remained at a relatively high level for a long time, providing upward room for the industrial silicon price. At the policy level, the "anti - involution" concept leaves room for future price improvement. In the short term, the price of industrial silicon is expected to be strong under the influence of capital sentiment, and attention should be paid to the improvement of supply and demand and policy changes in the future [13][14]. Polysilicon - Market Information: Last Friday, the main polysilicon contract (PS2511) closed at 52,700 yuan/ton, down 0.95% (-505). The weighted position changed by - 10,472 lots to 273,121 lots. In the spot market, the average price of N - type granular silicon was 49.5 yuan/kg, unchanged; the average price of N - type dense material was 51.15 yuan/kg, up 0.05 yuan/kg; the average price of N - type re - feeding material was 52.65 yuan/kg, up 0.05 yuan/kg, with a basis of - 50 yuan/ton [15]. - Strategy Viewpoints: The polysilicon futures price continues to be influenced by policy narratives. In the short term, the market focus remains on capacity integration policies and downstream price - passing progress. Fundamentally, part of the previous inventory has been transferred downstream, and the inventory reduction space for the entire industry is limited, depending on the maintenance situation of high - operating - rate enterprises. In terms of price, the basis has been continuously shrinking, the spot price has continued to rise, and the price - passing in the middle and front - end of the downstream is relatively smooth, but there is still a stalemate in the component segment, indicating that the actual terminal demand has not significantly improved. Currently, the establishment time of the platform company is uncertain, and the announcements of listed silicon enterprises also show that the expectations cannot be confirmed or falsified. Before the final implementation, the futures price may experience a phased decline due to the lack of actual progress. In the short term, the polysilicon price is expected to continue to fluctuate, with large intraday price swings, and attention should be paid to position and risk control, as well as the authenticity of sudden news [16]. Glass and Soda Ash Glass - Market Information: On Friday afternoon at 15:00, the main glass contract closed at 1208 yuan/ton, down 2.11% (-26). The price of large - size glass in North China was 1150 yuan, unchanged from the previous day; in Central China, it was 1140 yuan, unchanged. The weekly inventory of float glass sample enterprises was 60.908 million cases, down 675,000 cases (-1.10%). In terms of position, the top 20 long - position holders increased their positions by 16,632 lots, and the top 20 short - position holders reduced their positions by 608 lots [18]. - Strategy Viewpoints: The terminal demand is still weak, and downstream buyers are cautious and waiting. In terms of supply, there have been limited adjustments to production lines, and the market supply is relatively abundant. Enterprises are mainly stabilizing prices and making flexible adjustments in actual transactions. The inventory performance varies by region, with good inventory reduction in East, Central, South, and Northwest China, while North and Southwest China still face inventory accumulation pressure. Fundamentally, there is no single - sided driving factor in the market, and the price fluctuation range is limited. In terms of the futures market, the trading volume has decreased last week, and the capital entry desire is not strong, but the price center has been rising. As the "Golden September and Silver October" approach, the futures price may form support at a low level, and it is advisable to take a small long position at low prices [19]. Soda Ash - Market Information: On Friday afternoon at 15:00, the main soda ash contract closed at 1306 yuan/ton, down 2.10% (-28). The price of heavy soda ash in Shahe was 1216 yuan, unchanged from the previous day. The weekly inventory of soda ash sample enterprises was 1.7556 million tons, down 41,900 tons (-1.10%), including a decrease of 28,400 tons in heavy soda ash inventory and 13,500 tons in light soda ash inventory. In terms of position, the top 20 long - position holders increased their positions by 8207 lots, and the top 20 short - position holders reduced their positions by 16,826 lots [20]. - Strategy Viewpoints: The overall supply of soda ash is stable. Some plants such as Anhui Hongsifang and Hubei Xindu have resumed production, but short - term local shutdowns for maintenance have led to a slight contraction in the industry's operating load, and the overall supply shows a narrow - range fluctuation. Downstream demand is mainly for rigid procurement, and some enterprises' willingness to stock up before the festival is gradually increasing, with appropriate replenishment at low prices, leading to a downward trend in enterprise inventory. Some manufacturers' orders are almost full, and their attitude of stabilizing prices has strengthened. However, the current industry supply is still at a relatively high level, and the absolute inventory level is still high, so the upward driving force in the fundamentals is still limited. In the futures market, the trading volume was small last week, and no effective breakthrough was achieved. The price pattern is relatively loose, and it remains in a volatile market, so a cautious attitude is recommended [21].
黑色建材日报-20250922
Wu Kuang Qi Huo·2025-09-22 02:58