五矿期货农产品早报-20250922

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - In the short term, the domestic soybean market may experience a decline due to high supply pressure and lack of clear cost - side benefits. In the medium term, the global soybean supply is loose, but the market will mainly fluctuate within a range [2][3]. - The oil market is currently in a state of balanced or slightly loose supply and demand in reality but is expected to be tight in the future. It should be regarded as oscillating strongly in the medium term, and the current strategy is to buy on dips [5][6][7]. - The sugar price still maintains a bearish outlook in the long - term, but there may be a short - term rebound. Caution is advised in trading [9][10]. - The cotton price is influenced by both bullish and bearish factors and is likely to continue oscillating in the short term [12][13]. - The egg price is under supply pressure in the short term but may stabilize and rise slightly with the approaching of festivals. The short - term strategy is to observe, and focus on buying the far - month contracts after a decline [15][16][17]. - The pig price may be stable in the north and decline in the south. The short - term strategy is to short the near - month contracts and conduct reverse arbitrage [18][19]. Summary by Related Catalogs Soybean and Meal Market Information - On Friday, the US soybean price dropped more than 2% from its high. The domestic soybean meal spot price fluctuated slightly over the weekend, and last week's domestic soybean meal sales were average while提货 was high. The downstream inventory days increased to 9.42 days. Last week, 2.43 million tons of soybeans were crushed, and this week, 2.39 million tons are expected to be crushed. The US soybean production area will have normal rainfall in the next two weeks. The USDA slightly adjusted the yield per acre and increased the harvest area. The Brazilian soybean premium has started to decline [2]. Strategy View - In the short term, the domestic supply pressure is high, and the cost side has no clear benefits, which may lead to a short - term decline. In the medium term, the global soybean supply is loose, so the general direction is to sell on rallies. However, due to the low valuation of US soybeans and uncertainties in South American planting and weather, the market will mainly fluctuate within a range [3]. Oil Market Information - From September 1 - 10, 2025, Malaysia's palm oil exports decreased, but from September 1 - 20, they increased month - on - month. The production from September 1 - 15 decreased month - on - month. Brazil is expected to have a record soybean harvest in the 2025/26 season. On Friday, the domestic three major oils oscillated. The domestic spot basis was stable at a low level [5]. Strategy View - Factors such as low vegetable oil inventories in India and Southeast Asia, increased demand for soybean oil due to the US biodiesel policy, limited production potential of Southeast Asian palm oil, and decreased export volume expectations of Indonesia support the oil price. The oil market is in a state of balanced or slightly loose supply and demand in reality but expected to be tight in the future. It should be regarded as oscillating strongly in the medium term. The current strategy is to buy on dips [6][7]. Sugar Market Information - On Friday, the Zhengzhou sugar futures price oscillated weakly. The spot price of sugar in various regions decreased. In August, Brazilian sugar production increased significantly year - on - year, and China's sugar imports also increased [9]. Strategy View - Affected by high domestic imports and increased Brazilian sugar production, the sugar price is bearish in the long - term, but there may be a short - term rebound. Caution is advised in trading [10]. Cotton Market Information - On Friday, the Zhengzhou cotton futures price oscillated weakly. The spot price of cotton decreased. The downstream industry's operating rate increased slightly but was still lower than the same period last year. The domestic cotton inventory was at a low level, and imports decreased [12]. Strategy View - The Fed's interest rate cut and the approaching of the peak consumption season have both positive and negative impacts on the cotton price. The short - term cotton price is likely to continue oscillating [13]. Egg Market Information - The domestic egg price was mainly stable over the weekend, with slight fluctuations in some areas. The supply pressure is still high, but there may be a short - term increase in demand with the approaching of festivals [15][16]. Strategy View - The spot egg price may decline, and the near - month futures contracts are weak. The far - month contracts may strengthen. The short - term strategy is to observe, and focus on buying the far - month contracts after a decline [17]. Pig Market Information - The domestic pig price was mainly stable over the weekend, with slight fluctuations in some areas. The supply pressure is high in some areas, and the demand is insufficient. The pig price may be stable in the north and decline in the south today [18]. Strategy View - The current spot pig price may decline slightly. The short - term strategy is to short the near - month contracts and conduct reverse arbitrage [19].