宝城期货螺纹钢早报（2025年9月22日）-20250922

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report 2. Core View of the Report - The supply - demand pattern of rebar is improving, and steel prices are expected to remain stable with fluctuations. Attention should be paid to the support at the MA5 line and the demand performance [2][3] 3. Summary by Relevant Content 3.1 Variety View Reference - For rebar 2601, the short - term view is "sideways", the medium - term view is "sideways", and the intraday view is "sideways with a weak bias". The reference suggestion is to pay attention to the support at the MA5 line, and the core logic is that the supply - demand pattern is improving and steel prices are stabilizing with fluctuations [2] 3.2 Market Driving Logic - Futures price increases have boosted the market, and steel spot prices rose slightly on the weekend with average trading volume. The supply - demand pattern of rebar has improved. Rebar production has been continuously declining, but the intensity of production cuts needs to be monitored, and inventory is at a high level for the same period, so the positive effect of supply contraction is not strong. However, rebar demand has improved during the peak season, with high - frequency indicators rising from low levels, but the downstream industries have not improved, and the quality of the peak season is still in doubt. In general, the fundamentals of rebar have marginally improved under the situation of weak supply and increasing demand, but the downstream has not improved, and demand concerns remain. The improvement intensity needs to be monitored. The relatively positive factor is the increase in costs. Under the game of multiple and short factors, steel prices are expected to remain stable with fluctuations [3]