国泰君安期货商品研究晨报：能源化工-20250922

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the given content Core Views - Various energy and chemical futures show different trends, including short - term rebounds, mid - term weakness, and different trading strategies such as spreads and position management. For example, PX and PTA show short - term rebounds but mid - term weakness, while some products like rubber are in a state of shock operation [2][10][11] Summary by Related Catalogs PX, PTA, MEG - Market Data: PX主力昨日收盘价6594，涨跌幅 - 1.35%；PTA主力收盘价4604，涨跌幅 - 1.33%；MEG主力收盘价4257，涨跌幅 - 0.26%。PX11 - 1月差昨日收盘价0，前日收盘价18；PTA11 - 1月差昨日收盘价 - 22，前日收盘价 - 20；MEG1 - 5月差昨日收盘价 - 60，前日收盘价 - 62 [5] - Market Dynamics: On September 19, Asian PX prices fell to $816/ton CFR Unv1/China due to negative downstream PTA market margins. Chinese domestic PTA margins are negative, around 120 - 130 yuan/ton. Some PTA production line startups are postponed, and some PX and PTA device maintenance plans are affected [6][9] - Trend Intensity: All are 0, indicating a neutral view [10] - Views and Suggestions: PX and PTA are expected to rebound in the short - term following oil prices, with 11 - 01 long spreads and 1 - 5 short spreads. For PX, PXN compression positions should stop profit below $220. For MEG, the market focuses on anti - involution policies, with a mid - term weak trend and 1 - 5 short spreads [10][11][12] Rubber - Fundamental Data: Rubber主力日盘收盘价15,535元/吨，夜盘收盘价15,545元/吨，成交量264,433手，持仓量159,362手等. The basis and spreads show certain changes [14] - Industry News: In 2025, domestic tire enterprises' overseas investment and construction scale continues to expand. Most tire listed companies' revenues increase, but profits decline due to high raw material costs and trade barriers [16][17] - Trend Intensity: 0, indicating a neutral view [14] - Views: Rubber is in a state of shock operation [13] Synthetic Rubber - Fundamental Data: The 10 - contract of synthetic rubber has a daily - closing price of 11,445 yuan/ton, with a trading volume of 94,561 hands and a position of 75,259 hands. The basis and spreads change slightly [18] - Industry News: As of September 17, 2025, domestic cis - polybutadiene rubber sample enterprise inventories decreased by 0.08 million tons, and butadiene East China port inventories decreased by 2,500 tons [19] - Trend Intensity: - 1, indicating a slightly bearish view [20] - Views: Short - term shock pressure, with a narrowing downside space due to high supply pressure and cost - side pressure [20] Asphalt - Fundamental Data: BU2511 closed at 3,421 yuan/ton, with a trading volume of 179,842 hands and a position of 232,100 hands. The refinery operating rate is 42.59%, and the inventory rate is 26.24% [22] - Market News: Last week, domestic asphalt device maintenance increased by 2.0 million tons, and the capacity utilization rate of 77 heavy - traffic asphalt enterprises decreased by 0.5%. The capacity utilization rate of 69 modified asphalt enterprises increased by 1.7%, and the shipment volume of 54 asphalt enterprises increased by 14.6% [33] - Trend Intensity: - 1, indicating a slightly bearish view [30] - Views: Narrow - range shock operation [21] LLDPE - Fundamental Data: L2601 closed at 7169, with a trading volume of 201,711 hands and a position change of 26,840 hands. The 01 - contract basis is - 79 [35] - Spot News: LLDPE market prices fell slightly, with weak trading due to low downstream purchasing enthusiasm [35] - Market Analysis: PE demand improves due to the approaching peak season of the agricultural film industry. Supply pressure may ease in the East China region at the end of September. Polyethylene social inventory is relatively low, and the mid - term trend is expected to be range - bound [36] - Trend Intensity: 0, indicating a neutral view [37] PP - Fundamental Data: PP2601 closed at 6914, with a trading volume of 230,403 hands and a position change of 35,189 hands. The 01 - contract basis is - 174 [39] - Spot News: The domestic PP market is weak, with prices falling by 10 - 40 yuan/ton due to weak futures and low downstream purchasing [40] - Market Analysis: Short - term demand improves, but the cost side is weak. Supply - side maintenance increases, and downstream processing start - up rates improve slightly. Before the National Day, the market is rational, and short - selling should be cautious [40] - Trend Intensity: 0, indicating a neutral view [41] Caustic Soda - Fundamental Data: The 01 - contract futures price is 2641, and the Shandong 32% ion - membrane caustic soda spot price is 780 [44] - Spot News: Shandong alumina manufacturers reduced the purchase price of 32% ion - membrane caustic soda by 10 yuan/ton on September 21 [45] - Market Analysis: Shandong caustic soda spot is under pressure, but the optimistic expectation of alumina production increase cannot be falsified in the short - term. The market may show a wide - range shock [46] - Trend Intensity: 0, indicating a neutral view [47] Pulp - Fundamental Data: The pulp main contract has a daily - closing price of 5,018 yuan/ton, with a trading volume of 177,854 hands and a position of 166,419 hands. The basis and spreads change slightly [50] - Industry News: The pulp market is generally weak, with high port inventories and weak downstream demand. The prices of some paper products are stable, and the industry's profitability is poor [51][52] - Trend Intensity: 0, indicating a neutral view [50] - Views: Wide - range shock operation [49] Glass - Fundamental Data: FG601 closed at 1216, with a trading volume of 1,273,744 hands and a position change of 1,183 hands. The 01 - contract basis is - 96 [54] - Spot News: Domestic float glass market prices are stable, with some price loosening in the Shahe area. Supply is unchanged, and some downstream processing plants have pre - holiday rush orders [54] - Trend Intensity: 1, indicating a slightly bullish view [54] - Views: The original sheet price is stable [53] Methanol - Fundamental Data: Methanol主力01合约收盘价2,361元/吨，成交量756,698手，持仓量928,408手. The basis is - 108, and the MA01 - MA05 spread is - 20 [57] - Spot News: As of September 17, 2025, China's methanol port sample inventory is 155.78 million tons, with a slight increase. Different regions have different inventory trends [59] - Trend Intensity: 0, indicating a neutral view [60] - Views: The short - term main contract is under shock pressure, but the downside space is narrowing due to supply - side pressure and potential fundamental improvement [59][60] Urea - Fundamental Data: Urea主力01合约收盘价1,661元/吨，成交量112,725手，持仓量297,254手. The basis and spreads change slightly [62] - Industry News: On September 17, 2025, China's urea enterprise total inventory increased by 3.26 million tons. The mid - term trend is bearish due to weak domestic demand and limited export price drive [63][64] - Trend Intensity: - 1, indicating a slightly bearish view [64] - Views: The trend is under pressure, with possible pre - National Day price - cut promotions [64] Styrene - Fundamental Data: Styrene2511 closed at 7,152, and the EB - BZ spread is 1315. Non - integrated and integrated profits change [65] - Spot News: The macro mood is weak, and Shandong styrene prices are soft. Downstream replenishment willingness is low, and port inventories may accumulate. Pure benzene supply pressure is high in the fourth quarter [66] - Trend Intensity: - 1, indicating a slightly bearish view [65] - Views: Mid - term bearish [65] Soda Ash - Fundamental Data: SA2601 closed at 1,318, with a trading volume of 922,286 hands and a position change of - 9,941 hands. The 01 - contract basis is - 118 [70] - Spot News: The domestic soda ash market is in shock adjustment, with stable prices. Some devices have slight production increases, and downstream demand is moderate [70] - Trend Intensity: 1, indicating a slightly bullish view [70] - Views: The spot market has little change [69] LPG and Propylene - Fundamental Data: PG2510 closed at 4,425, with a daily decline of 0.78%. PL2601 closed at 6,388, with a daily decline of 0.56%. PDH, MTBE, and alkylation start - up rates change [73] - Market News: On September 19, 2025, the CP paper goods prices of propane and butane decreased. There are many domestic PDH and LPG device maintenance plans [80][81] - Trend Intensity: 0 for both, indicating a neutral view [77] - Views: LPG shows short - term narrow - range shock, and propylene is weak at high levels in the short - term [72][73] PVC - Fundamental Data: 01 - contract futures price is 4950, and the East China spot price is 4780, with a basis of - 170 and a 1 - 5 spread of - 303 [83] - Spot News: The domestic PVC spot market is stable, with weak trading. The pre - holiday supply - demand pattern is unchanged [83] - Market Analysis: PVC is short - term strong due to anti - deflation and anti - involution factors, but mid - term pressure remains due to high production, high inventory, weak domestic demand, and policy - affected exports [83] - Trend Intensity: 0, indicating a neutral view [84] Fuel Oil and Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - Fundamental Data: FU2510 closed at 2,819, with a daily increase of 0.43%. LU2510 closed at 3,368, with a daily decline of 0.27%. Spot prices in different regions change [86] - Trend Intensity: 0 for both, indicating a neutral view [86] - Views: Fuel oil shows a short - term adjustment trend with a slight night - session decline, and low - sulfur fuel oil is in a weak shock state with a narrowing high - low sulfur spread [86] Container Freight Index (European Line) - Fundamental Data: EC2510 closed at 1,050.5, with a daily decline of 6.00%. Different contracts' trading volumes, positions, and spreads are provided. SCFIS and SCFI for European and US - West routes show different trends [88] - Trend Intensity: Not provided - Views: In a shock market [88]