宝城期货豆类油脂早报（2025年9月22日）-20250922

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term trend of soybean meal futures prices will be weak, with an intraday and reference view of "shock - weakening" and a medium - term view of "shock". This is due to the possibility of falsifying the long - term supply gap with the improvement of Sino - US trade relations, the weakness of the domestic soybean industry chain, and the continuous negative basis pattern of soybean meal [5]. - The short - term trend of palm oil prices will maintain a wide - range shock, with an intraday and reference view of "shock - weakening" and a medium - term view of "shock". Although there is support in the palm oil industry chain, such as strong exports of Malaysian palm oil and potential policies in Indonesia, the domestic import profit inversion and inventory pressure limit the upward space [7]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Soybean Meal (M) - Viewpoints: Intraday view is "shock - weakening", medium - term view is "shock", and reference view is "shock - weakening" [5]. - Core Logic: The expectation of improved Sino - US trade relations may falsify the long - term supply gap. The domestic soybean industry chain is weak, with oil mills facing inventory pressure and a continuous negative basis pattern of soybean meal. Attention should be paid to the downstream stocking rhythm before the double festivals, Sino - US trade progress, and changes in the rhythm of import purchases [5]. Palm Oil (P) - Viewpoints: Intraday view is "shock - weakening", medium - term view is "shock", and reference view is "shock - weakening" [7]. - Core Logic: There is support in the palm oil industry chain, with strong exports of Malaysian palm oil potentially alleviating inventory pressure. Indonesia's consideration of a B45 transition plan to increase biodiesel blending ratios is favorable for prices in the long run. However, domestic import profit inversion restricts new purchases, and the large near - month arrivals and limited downstream demand lead to inventory pressure. The short - term market lacks a single driver and is affected by policy expectations, export data, and inventory changes [7].