合成橡胶投资周报：美联储降息如期落地，BR价格短期震荡偏弱-20250922

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment view on the synthetic rubber industry is "oscillating bearish" [3] Core Viewpoints of the Report - The domestic butadiene market has weakened, and the list price of cis - butadiene rubber has been lowered. Although downstream demand is recovering, attention should be paid to the support of macro - policies for demand. In terms of valuation, the correlation between BR and NR on the futures market has increased, and the rubber attribute is relatively strong [3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Review - This cycle, Sinopec and PetroChina's major sales companies have cumulatively lowered the price of high - cis cis - butadiene rubber by 200 yuan/ton. As of September 18, 2025, the mainstream ex - factory price of high - cis cis - butadiene rubber in China is between 11,700 - 11,800 yuan/ton [6] - The prices of butadiene, cis - butadiene rubber, and styrene - butadiene rubber have generally declined. For example, the ex - factory price of Dalian Hengli's butadiene has decreased by 100 yuan/ton compared to September 10, with a week - on - week decline of 1.10% [8] Device Status - Butadiene Devices: Many devices such as Nanjing Chengzhi, Sierbang, and Yanshan Petrochemical are in a shutdown state. Some devices in Central China have reduced their loads, and some in South China have temporarily shut down, resulting in a continuous decline in production [3] - Cis - Butadiene Rubber Devices: Shandong Weite, Taixiang Yubu, and Haopu New Materials' cis - butadiene rubber devices are under maintenance. High - cis cis - butadiene rubber production and capacity utilization are generally stable [3] Market Influencing Factors - Supply: The supply of butadiene and cis - butadiene rubber is affected by device shutdowns and maintenance, showing a neutral driving force [3] - Demand: In the semi - steel tire market, channel sales have increased, especially in the snow tire market. In the all - steel tire market, the market price is stable, but the replacement market demand has not significantly increased, and some enterprises face export pressure [3] - Inventory: Butadiene port inventory and high - cis cis - butadiene rubber enterprise + trader inventory have decreased. However, there is still an expectation of future vessel arrivals for butadiene [3] - Basis: The basis of cis - butadiene rubber in North, East, and South China shows a neutral state [3] - Spread/Price Ratio: The spreads of RU - BR, NR - BR, and the price ratio of BR - SC are in a bullish state [3] - Profit: The production profit of butadiene and cis - butadiene rubber shows a neutral state [3] - Geopolitical and Macroeconomic Factors: OPEC+ has started the second - round production increase cycle, the US economic data is weak, the Federal Reserve has cut interest rates, and geopolitical tensions in some regions still exist [3] Trading Strategies - Single - sided Trading: Oscillating upward [3] - Arbitrage Trading: Pay attention to going long on BR and short on NR/RU [3]