新世纪期货交易提示（2025-9-22）-20250922

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Iron ore: Bullish [2] - Coking coal and coke: Bullish [2] - Rebar and hot-rolled coil: Sideways [2] - Glass: Sideways [2] - Soda ash: Rebound [2] - CSI 50 Index Futures/Options: Sideways [2][4] - CSI 300 Index Futures/Options: Sideways [2][4] - CSI 500 Index Futures/Options: Sideways [4] - CSI 1000 Index Futures/Options: Downward [4] - 2-year Treasury Bond Futures: Sideways [4] - 5-year Treasury Bond Futures: Sideways [4] - 10-year Treasury Bond Futures: Rebound [4] - Gold: High-level sideways [4] - Silver: High-level sideways [4] - Logs: Range-bound [6] - Pulp: Bottom consolidation [6] - Offset paper: Bearish [6] - Soybean oil: Wide-range sideways [6] - Palm oil: Wide-range sideways [6] - Rapeseed oil: Wide-range sideways [6] - Soybean meal: Bearish with sideways bias [6][7] - Soybean No. 2: Bearish with sideways bias [7] - Soybean No. 1: Bearish with sideways bias [7] - Live pigs: Bullish with sideways bias [7] - Rubber: Sideways [9] - PX: Wait-and-see [9] - PTA: Sideways [9] - MEG: Wait-and-see [9] - PR: Wait-and-see [9] - PF: Sideways [9] Core Viewpoints - The Fed's interest rate cut has landed as expected, and after the National Day, trading focus will gradually shift to reality. The iron ore market is supported by increased global shipments and rising demand, while the coal and coke market rebounds due to production cuts and positive expectations. The rebar market faces high supply and low demand, with prices likely to fluctuate. The glass market is driven by fuel prices and macro sentiment, but the supply-demand contradiction remains. The financial market is affected by Sino-US relations and economic data, with stock index futures showing mixed trends and treasury bonds trending weakly [2][4]. - The precious metals market is influenced by central bank gold purchases, interest rate policies, and geopolitical risks, with gold and silver prices expected to remain high and volatile. The forest products market shows different trends, with logs expected to range-bound, pulp to bottom consolidate, and offset paper to be bearish. The oil and fat market is affected by production, inventory, and demand, with prices likely to fluctuate widely. The agricultural products market shows mixed trends, with live pigs expected to be bullish with sideways bias and soybeans and related products to be bearish with sideways bias. The soft commodities market shows different trends, with rubber expected to be sideways and polyester products to show mixed trends [4][6][7][9]. Summary by Industry Ferrous Metals - Iron ore: Global iron ore shipments increased to 35.731 million tons, with Australian and Brazilian shipments rising to 29.778 million tons. Demand rebounded as daily pig iron production remained high, and steel mills had pre-holiday restocking expectations. The iron ore 2601 contract broke through the previous high, showing a strong trend [2]. - Coking coal and coke: Production cuts at coal mines and increased "anti-involution" expectations drove the double-coke futures to rebound. Supply is likely to be weaker than last year, and demand increased as daily pig iron production remained high. The market is expected to be bullish with sideways bias [2]. - Rebar and hot-rolled coil: Supply remained high while demand was weak, and inventory pressure increased. The market is expected to be sideways, with the rebar 2601 contract likely to fluctuate strongly in the short term [2]. Non-ferrous Metals - Glass: The glass futures were driven by rising fuel prices and improved macro sentiment. The supply-demand contradiction remained, but inventory reduction provided some confidence. The key for the 01 contract lies in the cold repair path [2]. - Soda ash: The real estate industry is in an adjustment period, and the decline in housing completion area is significant. Attention should be paid to the improvement of real demand [2]. Financial Futures - Stock index futures: The market showed mixed trends, with the CSI 1000 Index Futures trending downward. Sino-US relations and economic data affected the market, and it is recommended to control risk appetite and reduce long positions in stock index futures [2][4]. - Treasury bond futures: The yield of the 10-year treasury bond increased, and the market trended weakly. It is recommended to hold long positions in treasury bond futures lightly [4]. Precious Metals - Gold and silver: Gold prices are influenced by central bank gold purchases, interest rate policies, and geopolitical risks. The current upward trend logic remains, and prices are expected to remain high and volatile [4]. Forest Products - Logs: Port shipments increased slightly, and September arrivals are expected to be low. Inventory increased to around 3 million cubic meters. Spot prices were stable, and the market is expected to range-bound [6]. - Pulp: Spot prices were stable, and cost support increased. However, the paper industry's profitability was low, and demand was weak. Prices are expected to bottom consolidate [6]. - Offset paper: Production was stable, but it was in the downstream seasonal off-season, and demand was weak. The industry has overcapacity, and the market is expected to be bearish [6]. Oil and Fats - Soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil: Palm oil production increased in August, and inventory rose. Domestic soybean oil inventory was high, but future imports are expected to decrease seasonally. The market is expected to fluctuate widely [6]. Agricultural Products - Soybean meal, soybean No. 2, and soybean No. 1: US soybean production increased, and domestic supply was abundant. Demand was weak, and prices are expected to be bearish with sideways bias [6][7]. - Live pigs: The average transaction weight increased, and slaughterhouse开工率 increased slightly. Supply is expected to increase, and prices may face some pressure [7]. Soft Commodities - Rubber: Supply pressure decreased in Yunnan, and production increased in Hainan. Demand improved as tire factory capacity utilization increased. Inventory continued to decline, and prices are expected to be sideways [9]. - Polyester products: PX prices followed oil prices, and PTA supply and demand both increased. MEG supply pressure increased, and PR and PF prices are expected to fluctuate [9].