液化石油气（LPG）投资周报：利润负反馈效应凸显，PG价格震荡回落-20250922

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment view on LPG is "oscillating bearish" [3] 2. Core View of the Report - The upstream PG fundamentals lack obvious drivers. The intermediate - link propylene had good trading last week due to the previous cost increase and demand improvement, but PP faces saturated demand and the peak - season effect is weak, with poor price transmission efficiency. In the short term, PG shows a downward trend from its high level, and the negative feedback effect of downstream PDH profits is prominent. Attention should be paid to the flow of warehouse receipts on the disk, as well as macro and geopolitical risks [3] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - The main contract of the LPG futures fluctuated after rising, with an average price increase and a fluctuation range of 4430 - 4520 yuan/ton. The international market was strong, supporting the market trend, and the price reached a recent high. The domestic spot market was average, with both rises and falls, and the basis continued to weaken. In terms of demand, the chemical demand for propane slightly declined, but the combustion demand was expected to improve, and downstream enterprises replenished stocks, resulting in a decrease in production enterprise inventories. However, the arrival of ships increased, and port inventories rose. As of Thursday this week, the basis in East China was 2 yuan/ton, in South China was 150 yuan/ton, and in Shandong was 70 yuan/ton. The lowest deliverable product was priced in East China [5] 3.2 Supply - Last week, the total domestic LPG commercial volume was about 538,500 tons (a decrease of 0.20%). Among them, the commercial volume of civil gas was 201,600 tons (a decrease of 1.75%), industrial gas was 214,100 tons, and ether - after C4 was 182,600 tons (an increase of 0.76%). The arrival volume of LPG last week was 650,000 tons. Some refineries increased self - use last week, and a plant in the Northwest resumed operation, so the supply slightly declined. A refinery in Shandong plans to conduct maintenance this week, but the plants of maintenance enterprises in the Northwest and other places continue to resume operation. It is expected that the domestic commercial volume may slightly increase [3] 3.3 Demand - The combustion demand is gradually coming to an end, and the traditional peak - season logic is fading. In the C4 deep - processing sector, affected by new - energy substitution, gasoline demand has weakened. The profit of MTBE is inverted but the operating rate is at a high level, the profit of alkylated gasoline has turned from profit to loss, the loss of isobutane dehydrogenation profit is relatively deep, and the ether - after market may decline and stabilize. In the C3 deep - processing sector, the utilization rate of PDH production capacity is relatively stable, and the operating rate remains at a medium - to - high level. The price of propylene in the intermediate link has declined, and the terminal PP demand is saturated. There are continuous losses from the PDH unit to the propylene and PP links, and a negative profit feedback effect has emerged [3] 3.4 Inventory - Last week, the in - plant inventory of LPG was 180,300 tons (an increase of 0.67%), and the port inventory was 3,234,000 tons (an increase of 1.49%). The domestic LPG inventory varied last week. Affected by factors such as increased supply and weak demand in the West, Central China and other regions, the supply increased to some extent. In Shandong, North China, South China and other regions, the demand was stable, and manufacturers could control shipments, so the inventory pressure was relieved. At the ports, the number of arriving ships increased slightly. With the increase in imported resources and the decline in demand, the port inventory showed a trend of accumulation [3] 3.5 Basis and Position - The weekly average basis was - 840 yuan/ton in East China, 1062 yuan/ton in South China, and 532 yuan/ton in Shandong. The total number of LPG warehouse receipts was 13,002 lots, a decrease of 1 lot, and the lowest deliverable area was Shandong [3] 3.6 Chemical Downstream - The operating rates of PDH, MTBE, and alkylation were 64.58%, 55.81%, and 43.82% respectively. The profits of PDH to propylene, MTBE isomerization, and alkylation in Shandong were - 256 yuan/ton, - 200 yuan/ton, and - 90.50 yuan/ton respectively [3] 3.7 Valuation - The PG - SC ratio was - 4.35%, and the PG continuous - first to continuous - second monthly spread was not available. Due to the continuous increase in crude - oil production and the drag on the cost side, the PG - SC cracking spread continued to strengthen [3] 3.8 Other Factors - In October, OPEC+ will start the second round of production - increase cycle, and the EIA weekly crude - oil inventory showed a significant decline. The US non - farm payrolls data in August was lower than market expectations, with an increase in the number of unemployed, a month - on - month decline in PPI and CPI, and an economic slowdown. The Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 25 basis points as expected, and it is expected that there will be two more interest - rate cuts this year. The geopolitical situations in Russia - Ukraine, US - Venezuela, and the Middle East still tend to be tense, and the war may further escalate [3] 3.9 Trading Strategy - For unilateral trading, it is recommended to wait and see temporarily. For arbitrage, the strategies are to go long on PP2601 and short on PL2601, go long on PP2601 and short on PG2601, and go long on SC and short on PG [3]