铝产业链周报-20250922

Group 1: Report Overview - Report Title: Aluminum Industry Chain Weekly Report [2] - Date: September 22, 2025 [1] - Research Team: Industrial Service Headquarters | Non - ferrous Metals Team [1] - Researcher: Wang Guodong [1] Group 2: Investment Ratings and Strategy Recommendations - Industry Investment Rating: Not provided - Strategy Recommendations: - Alumina: Suggested to wait and see [5] - Shanghai Aluminum (SHFE Aluminum): Suggested to go long on dips [5] - Cast Aluminum Alloy: Suggested to go long on dips or use the arbitrage strategy of going long AD and short AL [5] Group 3: Core Views - Despite inventory accumulation during the peak season, due to the Fed's 25 - basis - point interest rate cut and the opening of domestic policy windows, it's recommended to go long on dips and consider the arbitrage strategy of going long AD and short AL [4] Group 4: Summary by Directory 1. Macroeconomic Indicators - The report presents data on the US Treasury yield curve (10 - year and 2 - year yields), the US dollar index, the US Treasury real yield, inflation expectations, and the exchange rate of the US dollar against the Chinese yuan [7][8] 2. Bauxite - Domestic bauxite supply is tightening, with prices in Shanxi and Henan remaining stable. Mining activities are restricted by safety supervision, environmental inspections, and the rainy season. Since mid - August, alumina plants have increasingly used imported ores [11] - The mainstream transaction price of Guinea's bulk bauxite decreased by $0.1 per dry ton week - on - week to $74.9 per dry ton. The rainy season in Guinea supports the price, but the sharp drop in alumina prices exerts downward pressure. Long - term contract price negotiations for the fourth quarter will start in mid - to late September [11] 3. Alumina - As of last Friday, the built - in capacity of alumina was 11,462 tons, unchanged week - on - week, and the operating capacity was 9,795 tons, an increase of 40 tons week - on - week, with an operating rate of 85.15% [15] - The weighted price of domestic alumina spot was 3,010.2 yuan per ton, a week - on - week decrease of 37.3 yuan per ton [15] - The national alumina inventory was 371.9 tons, an increase of 3.9 tons week - on - week. The alumina industry is in a high - stable production state, with new capacities in Shandong, Guangxi, and the north gradually entering a stable production state [15] 4. Electrolytic Aluminum - As of last Friday, the built - in capacity of electrolytic aluminum was 4,523.2 tons, unchanged week - on - week, and the operating capacity was 4,442.9 tons, an increase of 2 tons week - on - week. The remaining capacity of Baise Yinhai's technical renovation project continued to resume production [22] 5. Inventory - The report shows the historical data of the social inventory of aluminum rods, aluminum ingots, Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE) aluminum futures inventory, and London Metal Exchange (LME) aluminum inventory from 2021 to 2025 [28][29][30][31] 6. Cast Aluminum Alloy - The starting rate of leading recycled aluminum alloy enterprises increased by 0.4% week - on - week to 55.9% [34] - The four - ministry joint notice on standardizing investment promotion behaviors requires the cleanup of local government's illegal tax rebates. The decline in aluminum prices has increased the enthusiasm of scrap aluminum traders to sell, and with the continuous mild recovery of the downstream, orders have recovered moderately, and the starting rate of recycled aluminum alloy has continued to rise [34] 7. Downstream Start - up - The starting rate of domestic aluminum downstream processing leading enterprises increased by 0.1% week - on - week to 62.2% [45] - Aluminum profiles: The starting rate of leading aluminum profile enterprises increased by 0.6% week - on - week to 54.6%. Industrial profiles, especially photovoltaic and automotive profiles, showed different trends, while the construction profile market remained sluggish [45] - Aluminum strips: The starting rate of leading aluminum strip enterprises decreased by 0.4% week - on - week to 68.2%. High aluminum prices at the beginning of the week suppressed downstream orders, and the increase in scrap aluminum prices may affect future starting rates [45] - Aluminum cables: The starting rate of domestic cable leading enterprises remained stable at 65.2%. Enterprises focused on power grid orders and some photovoltaic alloy cable orders, and purchased raw materials based on rigid demand due to high aluminum prices [49] - Primary aluminum alloy: The starting rate of leading primary aluminum alloy enterprises increased by 1% week - on - week to 57.6%. Short - term procurement slowdown in the downstream has affected the starting rate, and although most enterprises are optimistic about the peak season in September, some are more cautious about short - term expansion [49]