Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The overall view is that the macro - expectation is positive, and it is advisable to buy on dips [2][3] Summary by Directory 01 Black Plate Performance Comparison - The black plate showed a strong trend last week, with significant increases in coking coal and coke futures prices. The market focused on coal mine over - production inspections, and the central environmental protection inspection team demanded rectifications in the steel and coking industries in some provinces [3][4] 02 Futures Market Rise - Fall Comparison - The performance of the futures market was differentiated, with the black plate showing obvious strength [6][7] 03 Spot Prices - The second round of coke price cuts was implemented, while other varieties had small price increases [8] 04 Profits and Valuations - The profitability of steel mills slightly decreased, and the valuation of rebar futures increased [9][10] 05 Steel Supply and Demand - The steel demand improved month - on - month, and rebar inventory started to decline. The performance of demand in October should be closely monitored [3][12][13] 06 Iron Ore Supply and Demand - Global iron ore shipments increased, and the iron ore inventory of steel mills significantly rose [20][21] 07 Coking Coal Supply and Demand - Coking coal production continued to increase, and the inventory of coking coal in coking plants and ports increased significantly [3][23][24] 08 Coke Supply and Demand - Coke production remained stable, and the total coke inventory continued to accumulate [26][27] 09 Variety Spreads - The rebar's on - paper profit decreased, and the spread between hot - rolled coil and rebar narrowed [29][30] 10 Key Data/Policy/Information - There were various events including Sino - US economic and trade talks, central environmental protection inspections, Fed's interest rate cuts, and phone calls between leaders of China and the US. Also, there were reports on project shipments, coal mine over - production inspections, and environmental restrictions in Tangshan [35] Trading Strategies - For rebar, it is advisable to buy on dips, with RB2601 focusing on the [3100 - 3250] range [3] - For coking coal and coke, it is advisable to wait and see for the time being, or engage in short - term trading, focusing on the resumption progress of coking coal production [3] - For iron ore, it may run with a slightly strong trend, and it is advisable to wait and see for the time being [3]
黑色：宏观预期偏好回落做多为主
Chang Jiang Qi Huo·2025-09-22 03:10