螺纹钢周报：供应减量需求增加，螺纹小幅反弹-20250922

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints of the Report - In August 2025, price data slightly deteriorated, with PPI improving but CPI under pressure, indicating ongoing downward pressure on market prices. Credit and social financing data declined across the board, and government bond net financing remained an important support for the social financing scale. Fundamentally, in terms of supply, the decline in rebar production this week was basically flat, and the space for a continued significant decline in production is limited. In terms of demand, the consumption of building materials improved during the peak season, while the consumption of plates decreased. With the supply of raw materials increasing, the real demand for furnace materials being high under the background of steel mill复产, and downstream increasing inventory appropriately, rebar rebounded slightly [73][74]. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 1. Rebar Futures Market Review 1.1 Recent Important Information Overview - Economic data: In August 2025, the national CPI decreased by 0.4% year-on-year, and the PPI decreased by 2.9% year-on-year with the decline narrowing. At the end of August, M2 increased by 8.8% year-on-year, M1 increased by 6% year-on-year, and M0 increased by 11.7% year-on-year [8]. - Policy information: The Fed cut the federal funds rate target range by 0.25 percentage points on September 17, 2025. The National Development and Reform Commission published an article emphasizing efforts to promote the construction of a unified national market [8]. 1.2 Rebar Main Contract Trend - Not provided in the content 2. Futures Market Environment: Macro, Comparison, Basis 2.1 Macro - Money Supply - The SHIBOR on September 19, 2025, was 1.5470, up from 1.5280 on August 19, 2025, with a bearish outlook due to the rising interest rate [17]. 2.4 Comparison - Other Commodities in the Industry Chain - As of a certain date, the price of rebar HRB400 20mm in Shanghai was 3,250 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 0.62%, a monthly decrease of 2.11%, and a yearly decrease of 2.11%. The prices and their changes of other commodities such as hot - rolled coils, PB powder, metallurgical coke, and main coking coal are also provided [23]. 2.5 Rebar Main Contract Basis - The basis (spot - futures) of rebar on September 19, 2025, was 58 yuan/ton, showing different values on other dates [26]. 3. Rebar Spot Supply and Demand Overview 3.1 Steel Mill Raw Material Inventory - Not provided in the content 3.2 Blast Furnace Profit (Various Steel Products) - Not provided in the content 3.3 Blast Furnace Profit (Futures and Spot) - Not provided in the content 3.4 Blast Furnace Operation - The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel enterprises in China on September 19, 2025, was 83.98%, compared with 83.83% on September 12, 2025 [38]. 3.5 Electric Furnace Profit - Not provided in the content 3.6 Electric Furnace Operation - Not provided in the content 3.7 Daily Average Hot Metal Output - Not provided in the content 3.8 Weekly Steel Output - On September 19, 2025, the weekly output of steel (including rebar, hot - rolled coils, wire rods, and medium - thick plates) was 770.4 tons, with a year - on - year increase of 0.064897367 and a week - on - week decrease of 0.002899151 [49]. 3.9 Weekly Rebar Output - On September 19, 2025, the weekly output of rebar was 206.45 tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 0.025857594 and a year - on - year increase of 0.062915101 [53]. 3.10 Steel Mill Inventory of Steel - Not provided in the content 3.11 Social Inventory of Steel - Not provided in the content 3.13 Social Inventory of Rebar - Not provided in the content 3.14 Building Materials Transactions - Not provided in the content 3.15 Consumption Indicator - Cement Price - Not provided in the content 3.16 Downstream High - Frequency Data - Land Transaction Area - Not provided in the content 3.17 Downstream High - Frequency Data - Real Estate Transactions - Not provided in the content 4. Future Outlook - Market price data shows downward pressure, and government bond net financing is an important support for social financing. In terms of rebar fundamentals, supply is expected to remain at a low level, and demand for building materials is improving during the peak season. With raw material supply increasing and cost support, rebar rebounded slightly [73][74].