聚酯产业链期货周报-20250922

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The macro - sentiment is weak due to the Fed's 25 - basis - point interest rate cut, increased risks of employment decline and inflation rise, and the geopolitical situation in the Middle East is heating up, causing oil prices to fluctuate at a high level. The prices of PX, PTA, MEG, PF, and PR in the polyester industry chain are all expected to show a volatile trend. The supply and demand of each product have different changes, and their prices are greatly affected by oil prices and the macro - situation [8]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Chapter 1: Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategies - PX&PTA: PX and PTA have both supply and demand decreasing. PX has some device maintenance and production plans adjustment, and PTA's processing fee is compressed. The price is affected by oil prices and the macro - situation, with a trading strategy of unilateral oscillation, and arbitrage and options on the sidelines [8]. - MEG: Supply decreases and demand increases this week, and the supply is expected to increase in the future. The port inventory is low, and the short - term price is expected to oscillate. The trading strategy is unilateral oscillation, and arbitrage and options on the sidelines [8]. - PF: Short - fiber factory inventory decreases, and the processing fee strengthens slightly. The downstream is in a loss state, and the price follows the raw material trend. The trading strategy is unilateral oscillation, and arbitrage and options on the sidelines [8]. - PR: The market trading atmosphere is dull, the factory starts to decline, and the processing fee strengthens slightly. The supply is still relatively abundant, and the demand is transitioning from peak to off - peak season. The trading strategy is unilateral oscillation, and arbitrage and options on the sidelines [8]. 3.2 Chapter 2: Core Logic Analysis 3.2.1 Polyester - The polyester production and sales are weak this week, the start - up rate decreases, and the processing fee strengthens slightly. The traditional peak season has limited order volume, and the inventory reduction is slow. Different polyester products have different profit situations [11]. 3.2.2 PX - The spot floating price, basis, and monthly spread of PX continue to weaken. The start - up rate is still at a high level, and the profit of long - and short - process devices is slightly compressed [29][31][36]. 3.2.3 PTA - PTA has both supply and demand decreasing, and the processing fee is further compressed. The start - up rate is expected to rise first and then fall due to device maintenance and production plans [38][40]. 3.2.4 MEG - The basis and monthly spread of MEG weaken. The supply is expected to increase due to device maintenance restarts and new device commissions, and the short - term price is expected to oscillate [42][43][51]. 3.3 Chapter 3: Weekly Data Tracking 3.3.1 PX - Price: It shows the price trends of PX and related products in the industrial chain [55]. - Variety Spread & Profit: It presents the spreads and profits between PX and other varieties [60]. - Disproportionation and Oil - Blending Spread & Profit: It shows the spreads and profits related to PX disproportionation and oil - blending [64]. - Regional Spread & Profit: It shows the spreads and profits between different regions of PX [66][67]. - Supply and Demand: It shows the supply and demand situation of PX, including load and start - up rate [71]. 3.3.2 PTA - Price: It shows the price trends of PTA and related products, as well as basis and monthly spreads [73][76]. - Profit: It shows the profit situation of PTA under different raw material bases [78]. - Supply and Demand: It shows the load and start - up rate of PTA and polyester [82]. - Inventory: It shows the inventory situation of PTA in different links [84]. 3.3.3 MEG - Price: It shows the price trends of MEG and related raw materials [86]. - Spread: It shows various spreads of MEG, including internal - external spreads and regional spreads [88]. - Profit: It shows the profit situation of MEG under different production processes [97]. - Supply and Demand: It shows the load and start - up rate of MEG and the inventory situation in the main port [103][105]. 3.3.4 Polyester - Profit: It shows the profit situation of different polyester products [108]. - Supply: It shows the load of different polyester products [110]. - Inventory: It shows the inventory situation of different polyester products [112]. - Demand: It shows the demand situation of polyester from different aspects such as downstream start - up rates, export data, and domestic consumption data [115][124][125].