银河期货丙烯期货周报-20250922

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The propylene market is generally expected to be loose, with downstream product profits being poor overall. The trading strategy suggests a sideways consolidation for single - sided trading, and a wait - and - see approach for both arbitrage and options trading [6][7] Group 3: Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Chapter 1: Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategy Comprehensive Analysis - Propane's external market is strong. As the market turns to the peak season and the temperature drops in some areas, the rigid demand for combustion increases. The operating rate of domestic PDH plants may rise in the future, and the demand is expected to be strong, supporting the propane price. In terms of supply, several plants restarted this week, and more are expected to restart in late September. With fewer new maintenance plants in September, the propylene operating rate is expected to rise, increasing the market supply [6] Trading Strategy - Single - sided: Sideways consolidation; Arbitrage: Wait - and - see; Options: Wait - and - see [7] Chapter 2: Core Logic Analysis and Data Tracking This Week's Market Review - Propylene futures rose and then fell this week. As of Friday, the main 2601 contract closed at 6388 yuan/ton (-36%/-0.56%) in the day session. The mainstream price in the Shandong propylene market was 6580 - 6670 yuan/ton, down 90 yuan/ton week - on - week. Propane was relatively strong, with the East China frozen cargo arrival price at 598 US dollars/ton, down 4 US dollars/ton week - on - week. The Far East propylene CFR China was at 795 - 800 US dollars/ton, down 5 US dollars/ton week - on - week [14] Propane Support and Market Trend - Propane's import arrival price decreased this week. However, the external market is strong. With the market turning to the peak season and the temperature drop in some areas, the rigid demand for combustion increases. The operating rate of domestic PDH plants may rise in the future, and the demand is expected to be strong, supporting the propane price [15] Propylene Operating Rate - As of Thursday, the overall operating rate of domestic propylene plants was 77.98%, up 1.86% week - on - week. Several plants restarted this week, and more are expected to restart in late September. With fewer new maintenance plants in September, the propylene operating rate is expected to rise [18] Propylene Imports - Propylene import sources mainly flow to Jiangsu, Zhejiang, and Shanghai, followed by Fujian and Shanghai. After April, due to Sino - US tariffs, some downstream PDH plants were unstable. Downstream plants purchased low - priced foreign goods. The propylene import volume increased significantly from May to July, and South Korea is the largest source of propylene imports, accounting for 67.67% [21] Propylene Production Profit - Not elaborated in detail in the text, but only presented in the form of charts Propylene Downstream Industry Operating Conditions - Most propylene downstream product prices fell this week. Products such as propylene oxide, n - butanol, and acrylic acid had relatively obvious price drops. Downstream product costs were under pressure, and the acceptance of propylene prices gradually decreased. Most downstream product profits were poor, remaining below the break - even line. Octanol products are currently profitable, and acrylic acid and butanol have periodic profitability, while most other products have long - term profits below the break - even line [40] Propylene - Related Spreads - Presented in the form of charts, no detailed text analysis provided